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09 Nov 2022
Tristel Plc : Solid H2 heralds recovery - Buy

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Tristel Plc : Solid H2 heralds recovery - Buy
Tristel Plc (TSTL:LON) | 355 10.7 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 169.4m
- Published:
09 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Dr Jens Lindqvist -
Pages:
8 -
FY’22 results flagged demand recovery. FY’22 sales were H2 weighted (H1:H2 44:56) as expected, and the solid H2 performance has continued into FY’23 (Q1’23 +20% YoY), driven primarily by a recovery in ultrasound examination procedure volume across all main markets.
Driven by Tristel. The Tristel range of products for high-end, sporicidal disinfection of medical devices (including ultrasound probes for endocavity examinations, representing approx. 20% of diagnostic ultrasound procedures) represented 89% of core products sales. We expect a continued positive trend over the forecast period (FY’22-25e CAGR 14%), supported by a well-documented backlog of diagnostic procedures post-Covid.
Cache well-placed for medium-term growth. Although sales of Cache surface disinfectants remain subdued, we expect sales to benefit, over time, from a normalisation of hospital procurement and a return to face-to-face marketing. In our view, Cache is well-placed to disrupt the pre-wetted wipes market through superior cost efficiency and a reduction in plastic waste.
FDA approval of Tristel DUO ULT expected by the end of FY’23. We expect Tristel DUO ULT to become the first FDA-approved, topical product for high-level disinfection. Compared with its principal competitor, Trophon (an automated hydrogen peroxide mist system), Tristel DUO ULT offers both a faster turnaround time (through simplified processing and a shorter microbial kill time) and potentially reduced device damage.
Minor forecast changes, reiterate Buy. As shown overleaf, we make immaterial changes to FY’23-24e EBITDA, with a lower expected share-based payment charge resulting in EPS upgrades. Our valuation implies a target price of 396p (from 415p).