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  • 05 Dec 2023

An AI winner for 2024 and beyond


RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 4,019 1165.5 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 73,998m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Kassab Sami SK

    • 32 pages


 

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An AI winner for 2024 and beyond


RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 4,019 1165.5 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 73,998m


  • Published: 05 Dec 2023
  • Author: Kassab Sami SK
  • Pages: 32
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Gen AI is a major USD2bn+ opportunity for Relx''s Legal division, likely to drive top line acceleration and margin expansion, resulting in a material increase in cash returns. Relx remains our top pick in Media and Internet to play the Gen AI theme. We raise our forecasts and TP to GBP35 (vs GBP30). Gen AI to drive a USD2bn+ revenue opportunity Relx is currently developing an ecosystem of Gen AI products. Our industry contacts coupled with our analysis of Legal AI product pricing and AI product adoption curves has us argue that consensus currently underestimates the growth impact of this new technology. We expect Relx group to see top line growth accelerate to 7% pa from FY24 onwards (from 6% initially expected). Margin expansion could surprise on the upside As we enter 2024 Relx margins are likely to benefit from a 50% yoy reduction in its hiring activity as well as an easing of wage cost inflation. Internal Gen AI efficiency initiatives in content creation and curation as well as technology development in customer service should help margin expansion. Consensus expects Relx''s margin expansion to slow down relative to the historical 30bps pa. We expect margin progression to accelerate to 50/60bps pa and raise our EPS and TP to GBP35. Scope for increased cash returns to shareholders Relx''s balance sheet is in strong shape. We expect management to echo Thomson Reuters and Wolters Kluwer capital allocation policies and to increase its share buyback programme by over 50% to GBP1,200m in FY24 and GBP1,500m in FY25, double consensus current forecasts. Attractive defensive secular growth at reasonable price. Gen AI not priced in, in our view Relx PE relative to the Market ex-Financials is lower now than when Open AI announced ChatGPT in November 2022. Relx could look expensive but it is not, in our view, as its fundamentals continue to improve. It is our top pick in Media and Internet to play the Gen AI theme.

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