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22 Oct 2020
Disruption in Exhibitions likely priced in; too early to tell for STM

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Disruption in Exhibitions likely priced in; too early to tell for STM
RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 3,994 159.8 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 73,563m
- Published:
22 Oct 2020 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
8 -
Mixed 9M 20 trading update
Relx reported underlying revenue growth of 3%, 2% and 1% respectively for Risk and BA, STM and Legal and Professional. It did not report underlying revenue growth performance at the group or Exhibitions level. Exhibitions constant currency revenues are down 70% year to date. This suggests group underlying revenues are down by double digits.
Disruption from Exhibitions looks priced in
Management confirmed the FY20 outlook for STM, Legal and Risk although it continued to flag that Risk''s full-year outcome depends on the ''rate of improvement in business activity in Q4''. Relx guided for Exhibitions to reach GBP330-360m of FY20 revenues and the operating loss pre-exceptionals to be between GBP170m and GBP210m, 50% below consensus. Yet Relx shares have hardly moved. We believe the disruption that Covid 19 brought to the Exhibitions industry is now fully captured in the Relx share price.
STM renewal campaign: too early to tell
Management admitted that institutional budgets had been impacted by Covid 19 and pointed out that a third to 50% of annual revenues are up for renewal in any given year. It refrained from commenting on the ongoing subscription renewal campaign in STM. It pointed out that the renewal campaign in Legal was proceeding in a normal fashion. Open Access article submissions grew 100% year to date. This strong performance could help mitigate the pressure on subscription renewals into 2021 and appears as the main risk to our cautious view.
EPS revision on Exhibitions and forex
We have cut EPS20 and 21 by 6% and 1% respectively on Exhibitions and Forex. Relx shares have underperformed Media by 10% over the last three months. PE21 of near 20x is still above average at a time when earnings visibility is weaker than it has been historically. We remain Underperform.