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21 Oct 2021
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RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 3,276 -786.2 (-0.7%) | Mkt Cap: 61,483m
- Published:
21 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
10
Relx delivered a solid 9M21 trading update
At a time when consensus anticipated the strong H1 revenue growth performance to ease in H2, Relx trading update showed that Risk, STM and Legal have maintained their strong performance with organic revenue growth rates reaching 10%, 4% and 3% respectively for 9M21. We have raised our FY21 forecasts for Legal to 3% and maintained our 9% and 3% forecasts for Risk and STM in the context of tougher Q4 comps. We estimate that consensus currently implies c.25% yoy decline in Print STM books in Q4, worse than historical trends and than management''s soft guidance. STM could come as a positive surprise in February.
Exhibitions have restarted
Relx reported 9% ytd organic revenue growth in Exhibitions after a -36% in H1 as shows have resumed in all major geographies. In Q3 only September is a major month. In Q4 October and November are two key months for Exhibitions. We have adjusted our numbers to be consistent with management''s soft guidance in the low GBP500s (vs. our previous forecasts of GBP567m). For 2022, Relx will host 90% of its 2019 revenues with events taking place at their usual dates.
Further deleveraging suggests resumption of share buy back in February is likely
Management has completed just under GBP200m of acquisitions year to date and is running below historical averages. This coupled with the recovery in Exhibitions profit has us anticipate and model a GBP500m share buy back programme to be announced in February 2022.
Outperform maintained with TP raised to GBP23.5
Our scenario of faster for longer growth is underpinned by a solid Q3 performance and management comments that its priority is to accelerate STM and Legal organic revenue growth while maintaining Risk in the high single digits. The recovery in Exhibitions could push group orgrev growth to 10% next year, well above Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters to which Relx trades close to relative PE lows. We remain Outperform and raise...