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13 Feb 2020
First Take: RELX Group - Results robust, for now…

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First Take: RELX Group - Results robust, for now…
RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 3,967 -476 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 73,023m
- Published:
13 Feb 2020 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
4 -
FY19 results broadly in-line
FY results were broadly in-line with expectations, with revenue of £7874m and EBITA of £2491m just modestly below our estimates, but EPS of 93.0p modestly above given lower tax. Organic revenue growth of 4% was as expected, with STM picking up back to 2%, but Risk staying at the 7% of H1 despite hopes of re-acceleration – management noted the US market was less supportive than previous years, albeit having improved during the year.
2020 remains the same, for now
On the outlook, management noted the business is seeing similar trends to ‘recent years’ thus far, but has reduced the buyback to £400m in light of recent bigger M&A in the Risk division. Divisional commentary remains relatively vague as ever; it was noted on Risk that the ‘fundamental growth drivers’ remain strong, leaving scope for the weaker market backdrop that may continue (as we have highlighted given the sharp fall in US auto insurance premium inflation during last year). In addition, the mooted impact on the divisional revenue growth rate from venue constraints in Japan around the Olympics has been increased to 1-2%.
Limited underlying changes to estimates
Overall, we expect that limited changes are likely to consensus estimates, barring FX updates / the reduced buyback / inclusion of recent M&A, but further commentary on the trajectory of growth in Risk and the potential impact of US Open Access initiatives remains the key focus. With the stock trading at all-time highs and peak multiples (c.22x FY20E earnings), we see limited room for disappointment. Separately, the chairman is to retire.