Bond proxy re-rating: Share price strength in 2019 has come (aside from the benefit of weaker sterling) on the back of the yield curve reflecting lower future interest rates, effectively leading to a lower WACC being used to value bond proxies with resilient growth and cash returns. Sensitivity analysis (figure 2) for our DCF suggests the current share price implies a WACC of <7.5% (with terminal growth of 2.5%). Pricing risk: Interim results on 25 July will likely demonstrate that growth has remained robust in H1, but we see risks in assuming there is no scope for growth to slow. The Risk division in particular should be in focus – consensus assumes a continuation of the c.8% organic growth of recent years, it represents c.30% of revenues, c.35% EBITA and >40% of EV and is the key reason why RELX trades at a c.30% premium to Informa. Premium inflation can reverse: Insurance is c.40% of divisional revenues (more of profits) and has been supported by US auto insurance switching levels on the back of strong US premium growth. However, as figure 5 shows, this insurance premium inflation has dramatically slowed since mid-2018 – with the June 2019 level the lowest in ten years (mirroring the slowing seen for GEICO / Allstate). With a lag, this could lead to Risk growth slowing in H2 / FY20. Little room for disappointment: The stock now trades at over 20x FY20E earnings – understandable given the company’s track record of resilience of growth, but it leaves little room for disappointment, and arguably leaves the risks skewed to the downside (in the absence of further bond proxy re-rating with the yield curve).