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  • 28 Oct 2022

First Take: Future - Interpreting the US earnings season


Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 652 -88 (-2.0%) | Mkt Cap: 654.5m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: Future - Interpreting the US earnings season


Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 652 -88 (-2.0%) | Mkt Cap: 654.5m


  • Published: 28 Oct 2022
  • Author: Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


Relevant US Tech headlines Amazon (N/R): flagged the difficult macro, with Q4 guidance of $0-4bn operating profit versus c.$5bn consensus Meta (N/R): stated that average price per ad fell 18% YoY in Q3, versus a decline of 14% in Q2 Alphabet (N/R): flagged digital ad spend +2.6% YoY, although this was below consensus. YouTube revenue contracted by 2%, the first decline since it was disclosed separately Microsoft (N/R): flagged lower spend on LinkedIn, lower search and lower news advertising revenue Snap (N/R): first time revenue growth was single-digit since listing, flagging the impact from Apple’s policy changes, macro headwinds and increasing competition How did Future shares take the news? FUTR shares were broadly unchanged on the news relating to digital advertising; this has not been the case historically, with the shares selling off on recent US commentary This suggests to us that the market is comfortable that, through its aperture-driven direct ads, FUTR has more control of its yield destiny than peers and the read-across is not direct. The Amazon news overnight however saw FUTR’s shares fall, by as much as 5.25% at one point this morning, implying that the key concern remains the affiliates/eComm side of FUTR’s business - this will not have been helped by Amazon’s recent announcement of its entry into PCW services. See our recent MONY note (here) for our views of the credibility of Amazon in the sector. Our View Future, at a valuation of 6.2x FY23E EBITDA / 14.9% FCFY appears exceptionally good value at this point - this has been a marked de-rating with very little by way of earnings revisions to date. In our view, however the recent news of the impending retirement of CEO Zillah Byng Thorne is depressing the multiple; it is our belief that investors, in part, buy the shares for what Future could become, as much as for a continuation of its current shape, and that picture is now somewhat less certain.

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