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07 Feb 2024
First Take: Future - Looking for an inflection point

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First Take: Future - Looking for an inflection point
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 694 -256.6 (-5.1%) | Mkt Cap: 698.9m
- Published:
07 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
4 -
Trading broadly in-line
Future has released a short trading statement ahead of the AGM – the company notes that trading in the first 4 months has been ‘broadly in-line with expectations’, having seen the improvement in revenue trends versus the Q423 exit rate that management expected. They note that strong trading in price comparison and B2B are offsetting a slower start in affiliates / digital advertising on the back of the ongoing macro pressures, with magazines continuing to be ‘resilient’. We await further detail on underlying audience trends.
Holding on for a hero
On the broader strategy, management note that the new ‘Growth Acceleration Strategy’ is underway, with encouraging progress from their bigger ‘Hero’ brands which are outperforming the wider portfolio. We also await any further details from the portfolio review underway, and on any potential opportunities for revenue sharing deals with generative AI model providers, in a similar vein to that signed by Axel Springer recently. The statement has no changes to previous guidance for 'growth to return in H224' – the full interim results are on May 16.
Valuation support
The stock currently trades at c.4x CY24E EBITDA, or just over 3x if we strip out GoCo at a similar valuation to MONY. Post recent falls, this valuation (& a high-teens FCF yield) should provide support to the shares at the very least and offer significant upside over time – as we have discussed previously, Future (via buybacks) or private investors could take advantage of the depressed valuation.