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16 May 2025
First Take: Future - March madness

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First Take: Future - March madness
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 694 -256.6 (-5.1%) | Mkt Cap: 698.9m
- Published:
16 May 2025 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
4 -
H1 results broadly inline overall
The Future interim results out today appear robust at a headline level, with revenue of £378m (down 1% organically) and EBITA of £100.7m, both broadly in-line with consensus. By division, the Consumer business was flat for H1, supported by an impressive performance in Magazines to deliver 1% growth, but offset by a weakening of the US ad market in March (the company notes that the group was in organic growth overall in fiscal Q1 - and we believe for Jan / Feb too - but this March ad trend moved the group to a decline for H1). Go.Compare declined 1% against the tough comp of 30% growth in H124, whilst B2B declined 13% with ongoing weak tech enterprise marketing spending.
FY guidance cut
On guidance, management note that US direct advertising returned to growth in April, but given macro volatility, they believe it is prudent to now guide to a low single-digit organic revenue decline for the FY (vs ‘growth’ before), whilst maintaining the 28% EBITA margin guidance (and flag FX headwind of dollar weakness) – the company will provide a further update on trading in July. With leverage at 1.1x, Future also announces a new £55m share buyback program that in part offsets this impact at the EPS level in FY26.
Risks priced in, to at least some extent
The shares have been weak recently, likely reflecting macro risks and the mixed commentary from peers – leaving the stock trading at just 4x CY25E EBITDA, which implicitly assumed potential consensus downgrades to an extent, in our view. Fundamentally, we continue to believe this remains too cheap, and see scope for value crystallisation and re-rating over time, once forecasts stabilise.