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30 Nov 2022
First Take: Future - Strong FY22, outlook more uncertain

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First Take: Future - Strong FY22, outlook more uncertain
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 678 -98.3 (-2.1%) | Mkt Cap: 681.9m
- Published:
30 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
4 -
FY22 results
Having guided to the top end of the range (£266.4-£270.7m) for AOP at its pre-close update in mid Sept, today’s result of £271.7m is a slight beat (INVe £270.4m), with AOP margin expanding 1ppt to 33% (11% organic growth.) Revenue came in at £825.4m versus our forecast of £819.3m, growth of 36%, 2% organic, of which 5% from Media, with the US stronger still, delivering organic growth of 7%. The trend in affiliates has performed in line with recent commentary, -10% in H1, -1% in H2, driving an FY number of -6%. Digital ads delivered 7% organic growth for the full year (+10% in the US), +10% in H1, +4% in H2. Magazines organic growth was -2%, with a decline of 8% in H2. In terms of KPIs, the group has flagged organic audience growth of 2% in H2, the online reach in the US is now at 35% (+3ppts). Cash conversion was at 98%, with leverage down to 1.48x EBITDA – however, the group is flagging interest costs of £32m in FY23, reflecting a blended rate of 7.2% on average gross debt of £378.2m.
Outlook
The group has stated that it enters FY23 in a ‘strong’ position and is expecting to deliver ‘modest profit growth’ - we believe this terminology is likely to lead to consensus downgrades at the revenue and AOP level, with the increased interest costs set to have a further impact on EPS.
Our View
The FY22 results are strong with margin gains, the return of organic audience growth, a stemming of the organic decline in affiliates and robust growth in digital ads. Clearly however the commentary around FY23 growth will be the big focus; in our view FUTR shares have been pricing in a softening of the commentary – we expect to hear more regarding details at the analyst call.