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  • 31 Mar 2025

First Take: Future - The start of a new era


Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 675 -118.2 (-2.5%) | Mkt Cap: 679.4m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alastair Reid

    • 5 pages


 

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First Take: Future - The start of a new era


Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 675 -118.2 (-2.5%) | Mkt Cap: 679.4m


  • Published: 31 Mar 2025
  • Author: Alastair Reid
  • Pages: 5
  • Investec Bank


New CEO starts today Following on from the resignation of Jon Steinberg, the new CEO Kevin Li Ying starts today – having been a long serving key member of the management team, most recently heading up the B2C division. As such, we do not expect any significant changes to the strategy or investment plans, albeit there will no doubt be many questions asked around the portfolio, the pace of any potential reshaping and cash return plans. We look forward to hearing his first thoughts, in his new role, on the future direction of the business at an introductory sell side meeting later today. Improving momentum The trading update in February showed signs of improving trading momentum in the early part of the new fiscal year, particularly in the US, and we believe these trends are likely to have continued. Commentary from UK retailers such as Next and Currys recently suggests that consumer replacement cycles post Covid may finally be improving, and Google digital ad yield data shows strong growth in the US (see figure overleaf). That said, the UK ad market remains tougher, and we recognise that fiscal Q2 has a very tough comparable for Go.Compare. Remains the wrong price The stock has pulled back significantly in recent times, which we believe has no company-specific fundamental justification even if macro uncertainty and dollar volatility are clearly unhelpful. It now trades at <5x CY25E EBITDA, or not far off 3x ex Go.Compare (which is now c.50% of the EV) – as ad markets improve and the consumer electronics cycle turns, we see eventual scope for consensus upgrades and re-rating alongside further cash returns and asset disposals to crystallise value.

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