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24 May 2022
Future : Doing the right things - Buy

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Future : Doing the right things - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 650 143.1 3.5% | Mkt Cap: 646.9m
- Published:
24 May 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
7 -
Resilient: through its increasing diversification, the group is able to absorb the inflation-driven downgrades we currently observe across the corporate universe. The 10% decline in affiliates did disappoint a touch, but it was against an extraordinary period, with a comp of +56%; these ease in H2, and on a 2 half-year view, organic growth was 18%.
Ad strength: digital ad yields increased 5% YoY and 7% HoH, with direct now 52% of the revenue mix and organic growth in video (a key focus area) of 40%. The group flags that Aperture enrichment continues at pace, aided by the recent acquisition of GoCo. Unlike many peers, Future is able to combat macro trends through its scale direct offering, which is only likely to grow in relevance as we approach the 3rd party cookie cliff.
Compelling market positions: Future’s US audience reach grew to 35% in H122 (+2pps YoY), with newest focus areas, Women’s Beauty and Homes, now in the top 10. On the affiliates side, Womens’ lifestyle revenue doubled YoY, with new acquisition WhoWhatWear set to drive further growth in this vertical.
GoCo agility: whilst customer churn may be lower for the car insurers, we’re encouraged to see market share gains at Gocompare.com (+2pps in Car and +4pps in Home) and top line growth of 3%, plus the re-orientation of the LAMB brand into a content focussed alongside with The Money EDIT, providing further content to drive the Home & Personal wealth vertical.
Forecasts: we incorporate recent acquisitions into our numbers driving small upgrades across our forecast period; 0.7-2.6% on the top line, and 0.3-1.8% at the AOP level.
Valuation: we reflect increasing peer free cash flow yields in our multiple for FUTR, increasing to 5.0%, (was 3.75%), driving our reduced target price of 3620p.