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14 Dec 2023
Future : Finding a floor - Buy

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Future : Finding a floor - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 662 -82.8 (-1.9%) | Mkt Cap: 665.8m
- Published:
14 Dec 2023 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Darren Milne -
Pages:
7 -
Giving it the gas: The new Growth Acceleration Strategy is designed to help revenues grow by mid-single digit levels over the medium-term, as the company expands and monetises its engaged audience. It will be funded by incremental investment of £25-30m, with £20m in FY24 – this is the main driver of new margin guidance of 28-30%. To be conservative, we only assume low single-digit growth mid-term, with margins reaching 29%. We set out details of the breakdown of spend in the table overleaf – in particular incremental spend on content creation & monetising the US ad market are key to supporting longer-term growth / structural resilience.
Storm clouds clearing: Nearer-term, management expect revenue growth to return in H224, supporting low single-digit growth for FY24. We see reasons for cautious optimism on this front – the tech audience returned to growth in November and the likes of Best Buy have previously highlighted their belief in troughing consumer electronics demand. Similarly, Future’s overall website traffic has stabilised recently, and digital ad yields are nearing the point where comparables ease noticeably.
Valuation support: We leave revenues broadly unchanged and cut EBITA by 14% from FY24E to reflect the incremental investment. Future now trades at <5x CY24E EBITDA, or just over 3x if we strip out GoCo at a similar valuation to Moneysupermarket (with management highlighting an ongoing portfolio review). We recognise the risks but believe this – and a high-teens FCF yield – should provide support to the shares at the very least and offer significant upside over time. If public investors do not take advantage, private investors may (and further buybacks could be announced).