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17 Jan 2022
Future : Firing on all cylinders - Buy

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Future : Firing on all cylinders - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 694 -256.6 (-5.1%) | Mkt Cap: 698.9m
- Published:
17 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
The year of data: we believe 1st party data quality will be in focus this year. We are confident that Future’s intent-driven, niche-focussed audiences will continue to grow in popularity with advertisers. Being able to offer the eyes and ears of 1 in 2 UK consumers and 1 in 3 in the US (with a goal to reach 1 in 2) in a highly targeted manner should see Future gain further share.
Goals for this year: the “legacy” Future business should continue to push earnings risk to the upside, so we focus on the opportunities that Dennis and GoCo present to the group, including increased recurring revenue through subscriptions, the development of the Personal & Home Wealth vertical and the proliferation of myvouchercodes across the group. Elsewhere, the group will continue to drive the growth of the UK assets in the US, with a focus on the TI titles and the newly acquired Dennis assets.
Gearing evident: two key stats demonstrating the value of the platform are the falls (FY21 versus FY20) in both sales, marketing & editorial costs and overhead costs as a % of revenue (30% to 26% and 18% to 14% respectively.)
FCA review impact: with the softness in the energy business and the change of strategy at LAMB, focus will likely shift to the impact of the FCA on car insurance volumes. The group will look to mitigate any impact through increasing share via natural search.
More M&A: Future has created a leading position, we expect it will continue to push forward to stay ahead of the pack. Video creation assets to drive higher yields could be a focus, as could further consolidation of the publisher market.
Valuation: we continue to value the company on a FCF yield basis, with our forecasts driving our (unchanged) TP of 4810p.