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24 May 2021
Future : Inflection Point - Buy

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Future : Inflection Point - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 704 49.3 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 708.7m
- Published:
24 May 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
7 -
Future is, at heart, a content business: adding 150 new editorial roles in FY21 is encouraging – the 2yr 45% CAGR in headcount should mitigate any concerns that monetisation is occurring at the expense of content.
The cookie monsters: the creation of Aperture is designed to provide access for clients to Future’s high quality 1st party data set, with the aim (in part) to sell more, higher margin direct campaigns. Aperture sign-ups are encouraging, with a 19% increase in direct campaigns already showing underlying demand, ahead of the abolition of cookies in 2022.
Marie Claire: this is not a huge deal, but is very interesting in our view; whilst only a licensing agreement, the owners have given Future the scope to make changes and evolve the portfolio into a forward-looking brand. We see this as a ringing endorsement of the Future model by a global ‘name’.
Deleveraging provides optionality: whilst the company has stated its clear focus is to maximise value from TI Media and GoCo in the mid-term, there remains the opportunity to bolt on complementary assets to accelerate the growth strategy – we do not expect the business to sit still from an M&A perspective.
Don’t forget mags: the future isn’t 100% digital, this (currently large) cash generative element of the business has been sharpened up through COVID, is seeing positive momentum, and continues to provide content which can be monetised multiple times in the digital business.
Forecasts: we increase our AOP forecasts by 14.1%/11.0%/13.2% across our forecast period, as shown overleaf
Valuation: our revised forecasts and reduced target FCFY drive an increased target price of 3170p. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.