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30 Jul 2025
Future : Storm clouds clearing - Buy

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Future : Storm clouds clearing - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 694 -256.6 (-5.1%) | Mkt Cap: 698.9m
- Published:
30 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
7 -
Past the worst: The recent trading update gave some reassuring signs that operational momentum has stabilised and is starting to improve, most notably with US advertising picking up (helped by an easy comparable). Although the comparable toughens in Q4, we note recent data from Google suggesting that digital ad yields – particularly in the US – have seen robust growth yoy in recent times, which should provide ongoing support. eCommerce trends may not yet be picking up meaningfully (as witnessed in Prime Day trends), but Go.Compare may now be past the worst, with Q324 the toughest comp for car insurance. We believe the drag from Go.Compare could disappear next year as the market stabilises and as the management focus on conversion rates / vertical diversification has a more visible effect.
Structural fears overdone: A shifting search ecosystem rightly creates debates and challenges for Future to navigate, but we believe fears in this regard are being somewhat overstated. Trade press reports suggest that Future may even have benefited from the recent Google search algorithm update, that the eventual roll-out of Google Discover to desktop browsers could support traffic, and that the impact of AI Overviews could be less detrimental than assumed, given the opinion / editorial / entertainment content intrinsic to many of their trusted leading brands.
Plenty of value to be had: Future currently trades at c.4x CY26E EBITDA, offering a FCF yield of 16%. Management have already demonstrated their willingness to deploy this cash generation to share buybacks, and more of these are possible – total FCF over the next 3 years represents half the current market cap. We believe private / trade buyers could also take advantage of the opportunity to crystallise value / utilise these cash-flows.