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19 May 2025
Future : Take a deep breath - Buy

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Future : Take a deep breath - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON) | 663 -66.3 (-1.5%) | Mkt Cap: 662.7m
- Published:
19 May 2025 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
6 -
March madness: Future may have reported a 1% organic decline for H1, but for the first 5 months (when macro trends had a degree of relative stability) the group was in organic growth - with deterioration in US digital advertising (Q1 +1%, Q2 -13%) in March the key swing factor moving the group into negative territory. Despite the understandably more prudent FY guidance, the US ad market is starting to recover and, whilst not getting the headlines, the performances of Magazines (actually up) and Go.Compare (down just 1% against a comp of +30%) are worthy of significant credit.
Controlling the controllables: From a fundamental standpoint, we believe management’s growth acceleration strategy remains on track, with launches of existing brands into new markets and new initiatives to expand into non-car insurance / boost customer loyalty in Go.Compare undertaken in the period. We expect these self-help measures to deliver more visible benefits once a more benign backdrop in advertising markets and the consumer electronics replacement cycle kicks in. In the meantime, a commitment to a 1x leverage floor should keep underpinning further accretive buybacks.
Deep value: On forecasts, we cut revenues by 4% in FY25E and 6% in FY26E; operating profit falls 8% long term but is partially offset at the EPS line (down 6%) given the new buyback. Post falls, the stock now trades at <5x CY25E EBITDA - stripping out Go.Compare at 8x (where we note further new financial disclosure) the rump trades at an unjustified c3x - we recognise the cyclical & structural concerns, but this seems far too harsh given its cash generation potential. We set our new TP at 1100p, based on a 6x multiple for the rump / an 11% FCF yield for the group.