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The contraction in Residential development is intensifying, with a record cancellation rate in Q3 23. The backlog is shrinking slightly. In our opinion, Q4, which is always very important in this business, is not looking good. In the Office Property segment, organic growth remains below indexation, but the occupancy ratio is improving a bit.
Companies: Icade (ICAD:EPA)Icade SA (ICAD:PAR)
AlphaValue
Icade’s portfolio profile has changed significantly following the €1.4bn disposal of Healthcare. The new CEO will present a strategic roadmap in early 2024 at the latest.
While indexation of 5% further obscured the slight degradation in Offices, Residential Development showed a record cancellation rate in Q1 23, almost the double of the 2014-22 sequence.
In a major move, Icade will divest its Healthcare business in full. This is likely to modify Icade’s big picture. The new strategy remains to be established.
As property performed in line with both expectations and its peers, Residential development was resilient due to high reservations from institutional investors. Icade’s CEO will change this summer.
When looking at the Q3 22 figures alone, we don’t share Icade’s kind of optimism. H1 23 should show some fragilities in the French residential development business, in our view.
Icade experienced rising further vacancy in Offices sequentially. In residential development, the cancellation rate accelerated in Q2 22 alone. Guidance was confirmed, nevertheless.
In Offices, the pressure was concrete with a negative performance lfl. Rising construction costs in Icade’s development business will question French residential units’ affordability in 2023.
Yield compression in Healthcare has offset the impact of rising vacancy in Offices. The recovery recorded in Residential Development is about to stabilise in FY 22. The company’s guidance of +4% in FFO in FY 22 (before accounting for another tranche of disposals) doesn’t push to strong optimism.
Following stabilisation in Q2 21, vacancy was up 130bps sequentially in French Offices. Guidance unchanged. Nothing more about the Icade Santé IPO.
No major surprise in Q2 21 in the Property business: vacancy stands at a high level but was roughly flat sequentially. Reservations in the Residential Development business were flat sequentially too: strong lfl growth in H1 21 can therefore not be extrapolated to H2 21-2022. A negative base effect could occur in H1 22, in our view.
Q1 21 revenue was up 43% lfl with a negative contribution from the Property segment. Residential development was up 128% (lfl, IFRS) pushed by apartments delivered to the French Government arm (CDCH).
Much as Covivio and Gecina did earlier, Icade released a reassuring picture at pixel time (December 2020) as far as offices were concerned. It experienced some little negative revaluations too, but the balance sheet stays under control. It will pay a stable cash dividend of €4.01 per share.
As per Gecina, Icade’s vacancy was more or less stable on a sequential basis in Q3 20. The most interesting figure was the decreasing number of residential reservations in Q3 20, ahead of the contribution from the CDCH (French government). This reflects lower confidence from both individual investors and first-time individual buyers.
Companies: Icade SA
NNNAV was stable in H1 20 as valuers consider that the crisis doesn’t impact offices until now. It’s a fact that due to this specific business’s inertia, both vacancy and pressure on rents will not increase before H1 21, in our view.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Icade SA. We currently have 9 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Cavendish
Companies: Property Franchise Group PLC
Canaccord Genuity
FY 2023 was a challenging year for Frenkel with higher interest rates encouraging clients to place money into lower margin money market funds. Despite this, sales grew +32% (supported by recurring revenue +9% and +51% in non-recurring), EBIT margins remained strong at 22% and adj. EPS grew +17% (taking into account the higher number of shares). FY 2024 has seen a solid start to transactional business and there is a strong pipeline of new FUM opportunities both of which support further growth. Wi
Companies: Frenkel Topping Group plc
S&U reported FY24 PBT of £33.6m, down from £41.4m in FY23 on higher funding and regulatory costs and higher impairments in Advantage in H2. PBT was 2% ahead of our forecast as stronger revenues – up 12% to £115.4m – and better costs offset higher-than-expected impairments. Net receivables grew to a record at both Advantage and Aspen and management noted particular strength in Q4 and a good trading environment in the current year. Having absorbed a significant rise in funding cost as well as addi
Companies: S&U plc
Edison
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web
Companies: Foresight Solar Fund Limited GBP
Companies: PayPoint plc
Liberum
In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
22nd April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: ARV CTL AFRN FEN HUW TENG BBSN EAAS VAL
Hybridan
Companies: Speedy Hire Plc
Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol
Companies: NBPE ICGT ARBB RECI CLIG HAT AVO VTA APAX
Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.
Companies: Foxtons Group Plc
Zeus Capital
Companies: Facilities by ADF PLC
Companies: Jupiter Green Investment Trust PLC
Kepler | Trust Intelligence
Asset managers had a poor 2022: the S&P Composite 1500 Asset Management Index was down 22% and, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), worldwide mutual funds fell by 20%, from $76tr to $60tr. When bond and equity markets fall, the results are unlikely to be pretty: with revenues trending down and multiples contracting, there is a double whammy to contend with. So how do valuations shape up now, after a bullish start to the new year? The first chart is my favourite chart of asset m
Companies: RAT SDR IPX LIO FEN BRK MTW CLIG ASHM HL/ JUP PCFT IHP AJB MNG TAM EMG
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