In a short trading update UBM confirms it has continued to perform in line with expectations. Major event performances since the Interims appear to be on trend and acquisitions are also on plan. The company signals no change to the trading outlook. In our last comment we highlighted the immediate value in the stock and it has performed well (+11.4%) as expected. We also commented that there was further upside to forecasts if FX rates held (our existing estimates are based on $1.32 vs spot of c1.25 and Euro 1.20 vs spot of 1.14). While this may edge up our Target Price potentially it isn’t enough to support a Buy rating and hence we move back to Hold. Speculation on the acquisition of a material Far East focused business has edged the stock back from recent peak at 744p. We doubt investors are hugely keen on substantially increasing exposure to this region (without a very strong case) given the push to expand North American exposure. In combination with the new uncertainty in the US this may result in a slowdown in acquisitions.
