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French offices were resilient in Q2 22 due mainly to indexation’s contribution but German residential demonstrated a further good performance, at first glance. As expected, hotels’ powerful recovery explained the bulk of consolidated top-line growth.
Companies: Covivio SA
The incremental contribution from Hotels will offset stable Offices for a while and lead to a positive lfl consolidated performance in FY 22. So far so good.
If the absence of strong negative news is a positive, then Q4 21 was also positive. Offices eroded only slightly and German Residential performed more than enough to offset Offices’ flattish behaviour.
Take-up was up in European Offices in Q3 21, however vacancy was stable sequentially and lfl growth was negative, especially in France (-4%). Residential Germany was the key driver of the consolidated 0% lfl
It looks like the crisis hasn’t impacted Covivio that much. However, both rising vacancy and incentives in the region of Paris in Q2 21 (offices) are a persisting concern. Short-term catch-up continues.
Aside both the unsurprising performances of Hotels (-46%, but RevPar down 84%) and German Residential (+3.4%), European Offices were down 1.1% lfl in Q1 21. Our estimate was a positive 0.5% in Q4 20. Revenue now embarks the rising vacancy of Q2-Q3 20 in full.
The first cracks were confirmed in peripheral locations as far French offices were concerned. Hotels were experiencing the all but surprising collapse without accounting for a strong cut in book values. German residential was supporting the big picture.
The increasing vacancy was the premise of negative organic performance as from Q4 20 in the Office segment. Some recent deliveries could mask an organic decline for a while (Offices), as far as consolidated figures are concerned.
Values were almost stable in H1 20. Neither valuers nor the transaction market itself acted in the new reality. We observed a yield compression of 10-20bp on the full portfolio despite negative macros.
Forget the insignificant (good) Q1 20 figures. The current discount of c. 40% vs. the latest NAV (December 2019) will be consumed by progressive dilution (dividend in scrip), write-off of GAV (10-15% as a minimum), and a remaining ex-post discount of 20-25% only. The safety harness looks therefore insufficient, should values be down by more than the above-mentioned 10-15% mark.
Covivio decided to buy the listed Godewind in Germany, or a fully cash €1.2bn deal. It will extend its European Offices platform (France / Italy) following its successful residential German investment and alongside its Hotels branch. The recent share price catch up, from €90 in August 2019 to €110 today, translates the global shareholders’ race for yield, pushing the market to value Offices well above NAVs. The party continues.
The share now trades far above its latest NNNAV. Even if we do not detect an emergency, we believe that some end-markets are at risk. We do not identify a buy opportunity on Covivio and stick to our negative stance.
The positive revaluations were close to zero in both French and Italian Offices, once the pipeline’s contribution is excluded. The good news was… Berlin and its 9% value growth in H1 19 vs. December 2018, thanks both healthy lfl growth and very strong additional yield compression. However, the full impact of the rent-freeze policy is not included at all. The next imprtant date being February 2020 (FY 19 figures), the market will keep in mind today’s good news for a while.
Nice quarter with positive news on the organic growth front as well as on the pre-let ratio concerning 2019 expected deliveries. Capital gains (margin) on disposals are now close to the neutral area, but we do not expect massive negative revaluations by the end of H1 19 according to Q1 figures. However, the market cannot expect significant valuation improvements on the standalone portfolio (excluding pipeline delivery). Released EPS momentum will slow from H2 19.
Covivio is an other property company to announce (slight) deleveraging. This behaviour is now spreading to all asset classes as Covivio owns offices (Grand Paris, Italy), homes (Germany), hotels (Europe). Compression yield probably stopped on H2 18 (Offices/France). Germany shows another strong year with additional 12% revaluation.
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Challenger Energy (CEG LN): Discontinuing coverage - We are discontinuing coverage on Challenger Energy Group.
Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: 3-5 well programme in 2023. Increased resources estimate at Kveikje – There were no surprises in the 1H22 financials. The gross contingent resources estimates at Kveikje have been increased from 28-48 mmboe to 35-60 mmboe (2C-3C) based on a new CPR following post wel
Companies: HUR CNE CNE I3E CZA CASP DEC IOG PPC SQZ TRIN RBD SAVE SLE ECHO BLOK CEG LBE PTR
Companies: Plus500 Ltd.
Companies: H&T Group plc
Results are consistent with August’s update and confirm a breakout FY22, as Made Tech materially scaled its business – growing revenue 120% y/y (organic) to £29.3m, an exceptional result, which in turn drove a return to profitability, AOP: £2.3m (PY:£-0.8m). This was achieved by Made Tech more than doubling its headcount and alongside this, also delivered sales bookings of £51.1m (+115% y/y) which includes Made Tech’s largest ever win. Made Tech’s y/e backlog is also up sharply at £38.2m (+133%
Companies: Made Tech Group PLC
Singer Capital Markets
Companies: Aquis Exchange Plc
With pandemic restrictions lifted and the return to work underway, Regional REIT’s (RGL) H122 results show good and continuing operational progress. The sharp rise in energy prices affected property costs, but this should moderate with government support measures. Combined with income seasonality and fully fixed/hedged borrowing costs, RGL expects a stronger H222 performance and reiterated its full-year DPS target of 6.6p.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
With results two weeks away, PRSR has flagged that it now expects EPRA NAV will be “no less than 116p”. This is +11% in H2 alone and 10% ahead of our 106p forecast; driven by +5% rental growth and tightening valuation yields. There has been further development progress in Q1’23 to date, with 55 homes completed taking the estate to >4,800 homes. We note a strong rental performance against a more challenging macro-economic backdrop. The shares trade on a 25% discount to reported FY22 EPRA NAV with
Companies: PRS REIT Plc
Companies: Real Estate Investors plc
Companies: FNX JOG PCIP
An increased in revolving credit facilities at NESF brings the total available to £205m with £115.5m currently drawn. We see this as well-timed as there is a lot of activity in the market for both PV and storage projects and the facility gives the fund the firepower to pursue the best opportunities in a timely fashion.
Companies: NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd
Dish of the day
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Streaks Gaming plc, a UK-based provider of conversational gaming products intends to join the Standard Segment of the Main Market this autumn. The flotation is expected to value Streaks at approximately £10.2m (pre-money) and will make it the first LSE-listed "pure-play" conversational gaming company. Raising between £5-10m.
Independent Living REIT plc, intends to float on the Premium Segme
Companies: TBLD BOKU ERGO K3C MYX MYXR PGH
Salarius announced a product line expansion for MicroSalt®. Demand for MicroSalt®, as a low sodium salt alternative, has resulted in a new line of table salt shakers for direct to consumer and business sales starting 1 October 2022. MicroSalt® Salt Shakers are going to be launched at Expo Food Eas as part of: The Natural Products Expo being held 28 September to 1 October 2022 in Philadelphia, US.
Companies: Tekcapital Plc
Time Finance released their FY22 annual results ending 31 May 2022 in-line with the trading update in July. It has also released a Q1/23A update which provides colour on the success of its new strategy focused on the core business. We leave forecasts unchanged and believe the company remains on track to hit our FY23E forecasts. Time looks significantly undervalued given it trades on a P/TNAV of 0.5x, an FY24E PE of 4.1x and over 65% growth forecasted in Adj PBT over the next two years.
Companies: Time Finance plc
Avation is a lessor of commercial passenger aircraft to seventeen airlines. The advent of COVID-19 brought with it the most challenging period ever in the industry's history. Avation took swift action to preserve liquidity and maintain cash flow through renegotiating its senior debt amortisation, thereby being able to provide support for customers. Today, the group's fleet consists of 39 aircraft, along with purchase rights over 5-years on a further 28 ATR 72-600s, one of the lowest CO2 emission
Companies: Avation PLC