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As with all its peers, indexation accounts for most of the growth in revenues. Inflation will continue to support 2024. The occupancy ratio did not deteriorate in Q3 23. Disposals are continuing, with greater concessions on the sale price of offices in Q3 23, in a transaction market that has contracted sharply in recent months.
Companies: Covivio SA
AlphaValue
In spite of a top line up 8% lfl, negative revaluations captured the attention in H1 23. Both Offices and German Residential registered -9% yoy, two thirds of this in H1 23.
The Q1 23 is almost the last quarter of accelerated consolidated catch-up attributable to a strong positive base effect from the Hotels division. Inflation is supporting rents in German residential and Offices but the vacancy rate for the latter surpassed the unprecedented 10% mark in France in Q1 23.
Beyond a “record performance” (management quote), Covivio guided for a lower FFO in FY 23, even if almost stable at constant perimeter. A great portion of the 2023 dividend will be paid in scrip and Covivio will accelerate its disposals in 2023-24. Not a sign of great confidence.
Hotels drove the bulk of the 9M 22 recovery. Offices now account for the rising contribution from inflation. This could help limit further downside in the share price.
French offices were resilient in Q2 22 due mainly to indexation’s contribution but German residential demonstrated a further good performance, at first glance. As expected, hotels’ powerful recovery explained the bulk of consolidated top-line growth.
The incremental contribution from Hotels will offset stable Offices for a while and lead to a positive lfl consolidated performance in FY 22. So far so good.
If the absence of strong negative news is a positive, then Q4 21 was also positive. Offices eroded only slightly and German Residential performed more than enough to offset Offices’ flattish behaviour.
Take-up was up in European Offices in Q3 21, however vacancy was stable sequentially and lfl growth was negative, especially in France (-4%). Residential Germany was the key driver of the consolidated 0% lfl
It looks like the crisis hasn’t impacted Covivio that much. However, both rising vacancy and incentives in the region of Paris in Q2 21 (offices) are a persisting concern. Short-term catch-up continues.
Aside both the unsurprising performances of Hotels (-46%, but RevPar down 84%) and German Residential (+3.4%), European Offices were down 1.1% lfl in Q1 21. Our estimate was a positive 0.5% in Q4 20. Revenue now embarks the rising vacancy of Q2-Q3 20 in full.
The first cracks were confirmed in peripheral locations as far French offices were concerned. Hotels were experiencing the all but surprising collapse without accounting for a strong cut in book values. German residential was supporting the big picture.
The increasing vacancy was the premise of negative organic performance as from Q4 20 in the Office segment. Some recent deliveries could mask an organic decline for a while (Offices), as far as consolidated figures are concerned.
Values were almost stable in H1 20. Neither valuers nor the transaction market itself acted in the new reality. We observed a yield compression of 10-20bp on the full portfolio despite negative macros.
Forget the insignificant (good) Q1 20 figures. The current discount of c. 40% vs. the latest NAV (December 2019) will be consumed by progressive dilution (dividend in scrip), write-off of GAV (10-15% as a minimum), and a remaining ex-post discount of 20-25% only. The safety harness looks therefore insufficient, should values be down by more than the above-mentioned 10-15% mark.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Covivio SA. We currently have 20 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Cavendish
Companies: Property Franchise Group PLC
Canaccord Genuity
FY 2023 was a challenging year for Frenkel with higher interest rates encouraging clients to place money into lower margin money market funds. Despite this, sales grew +32% (supported by recurring revenue +9% and +51% in non-recurring), EBIT margins remained strong at 22% and adj. EPS grew +17% (taking into account the higher number of shares). FY 2024 has seen a solid start to transactional business and there is a strong pipeline of new FUM opportunities both of which support further growth. Wi
Companies: Frenkel Topping Group plc
S&U reported FY24 PBT of £33.6m, down from £41.4m in FY23 on higher funding and regulatory costs and higher impairments in Advantage in H2. PBT was 2% ahead of our forecast as stronger revenues – up 12% to £115.4m – and better costs offset higher-than-expected impairments. Net receivables grew to a record at both Advantage and Aspen and management noted particular strength in Q4 and a good trading environment in the current year. Having absorbed a significant rise in funding cost as well as addi
Companies: S&U plc
Edison
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web
Companies: Foresight Solar Fund Limited GBP
International Public Partnerships’ (INPP’s) FY23 results show that it continues to deliver consistent and predictable returns for investors, while delivering environmental and social benefits for the individuals and communities that are served by its assets. Despite this strong performance and a substantial need for private infrastructure funding, the macroeconomic environment has weighed on INPP’s share price, in common with the wider sector. Regardless, attractive returns are available from th
Companies: International Public Partnerships Ltd
In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
Companies: PayPoint plc
Liberum
Business as usual for WTAN’s executive team, while the board reviews investment management arrangements…
Companies: Witan Investment Trust PLC
Kepler | Trust Intelligence
Companies: Speedy Hire Plc
Companies: PensionBee Group PLC
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Companies: ARV CTL AFRN FEN HUW TENG BBSN EAAS VAL
Hybridan
Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.
Companies: Foxtons Group Plc
Zeus Capital
Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol
Companies: NBPE ICGT ARBB RECI CLIG HAT AVO VTA APAX
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