Gecina’s H1 21 figures showed the great resilience of Paris CBD, where the bulk of its €20bn assets leans (€4bn in La Défense). End-market data don’t show a strong adjustment in either rents or price per sqm in Paris CBD, even if the same parameters are a bit more worrying at the fringe of it.
Companies: Gecina (GFC:EPA)Gecina SA (GFC:PAR)
Adjusted for exceptional items, the performance of Offices was -0.7% in Q1 21. Net of the positive indexation of 0.8%, the negative 1.5% mirrored the 130bp degradation in occupancy yoy (-140bp sequentially). Gecina is highlighting an improving end-market. As far as we are concerned, we believe in a catch-up phase.
Gecina’s guidance doesn’t account a strong increase in forward vacancy nor diminishing rents. It highlighted the +2.7% in Paris CBD (Offices) and the +7% in Residential values, both in FY 20. However, Gecina’s assets were up 1% in H1 20 and down 1% in H2 20 (sequentially). Nothing worrying at pixel time.
Companies: Gecina SA
The Q3 20 performance was good overall with still high rents in the City of Paris inducing a positive reversion. Gecina confirmed, unsurprisingly, some growing uncertainty in both the first and second inner rings.
Office values were safe in Paris CBD in H1 20 (or two-thirds of Gecina’s portfolio) due to stable but toppish rents. Reversion now clearly turned into negative territory in both the 1st and 2nd inner rings of Paris. This was the logical continuation of the fragilities identifiable since mid-2019.
Shopping malls have experienced down values in Europe since 2018 but Offices reached their tops in February 2020. We now anticipate a 10-15% cut in values, as a minimum. It was 18% in 2008-09. We now factor it in our model for Gecina.
One again, in FY 19, revaluations were very positive in the French Offices’ market. Provincial assets (Lyon, Bordeaux…) registered 7% valuation growth (mostly in H2 19). It led Gecina’s net capitalisation rate to 3.90% (Offices, all areas) with another slight yield compression of 20bp. The latter favoured the best central locations, while the inner and outer rings of the City of Paris were much less resilient. Gecina’s recent share price reaction confirmed vulnerability to macros. Negative stanc
The Q3 19 set of figures demonstrated the resilience of Gecina’s assets, i.e. its Prime Offices and apartments in the very heart of the City of Paris. There was no red flag but some fragilities have become progressively more concrete in both the first and second rings around the City.
Confirming market information, the Offices segment of the City of Paris signed another good half, including a slight yield compression of 14bp. The trend weakened clearly in La Défense where we can worry about the coming over-supply and was negative in both the 1st and 2nd rings around Paris (rental values are now in negative territory).
The Parisian office market shows remarkably robust figures in terms of vacancy and rents in Q1 19. Nevertheless, we cannot consider it as completely immune to macro issues. We therefore adopt a more cautious stance by adjusting both the target price and recommendation.
Good FY 18 figures. The good pipeline ensures 2019-2021 average 4% growth in revenue and net recurring profit in our view. However current Capitalization Rates on some assets are approaching the limit of potential value destruction.
Gecina continued benefiting from positive trends in the Paris Region office market, particularly in Paris CBD. Demand remained good, pumping up rental prices.
Gecina benefited from positive trends in the office market in Paris and favourable funding conditions (targeting LTV below 40%). Rental activity was supported by the lack of available spaces (in Paris mostly, where 89% of Gecina’s portfolio is located). Management raised its earnings guidance to +8% (vs. +6% previously) growth in recurrent EPS and an organic growth of +2% for offices (as estimated in our model). We stick to our earlier positive stance on the stock.
Gecina’s GRI increased by 3.5% yoy (2.1% lfl) to €558.9m (higher that estimates), and EBITDA was up by 3.8% yoy, to €453.5m. This has led to a 4.6% increase in recurrent net income to €363.5m, exceeding the company’s initial expectations. The performance was driven by Eurosic’s integration and the optimisation of financial expenses. We will revise upwards our numbers, including Eurosic’s integration.
Gecina published its H1 17 figures. Gross rental income accounted for €240.6m, down by 7.27% on a yearly basis (+1.6% lfl). EBITDA stood at €183.6m, a decline of 8.8% yoy. The financial occupancy rate for the period came to 95.5%, stable yoy. LTV stood at 29.3%, down by 100bp compared to FY16. The property portfolio at €13bn increased by 9.6% over six months (c. 76% in offices, 22% in traditional residential and 2% in student residences).
Net financial debt amounted to €3,936m (c. 70% long-term
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Revolution Beauty is a multi-brand, multi-category, multi-channel, mass beauty innovator with proven global scale. Since launch in 2014, the Group has grown rapidly (FY14 – FY19 CAGR of 99%) generating revenue of £137.5m in the 12m to 31 December 2020. Revolution has an established retail footprint of c.11,000 doors across leading retail chains in the UK, USA and internationally, driving global brand recognition. This is complemented by a fast-growing digital business (+81% in 2020) including it
Companies: Revolution Beauty Group plc
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Litigation Capital Management has released its results for FY21, reflecting on a positive year for the group in very challenging market conditions. Although well flagged, these set of results highlight the strength of LCM's investment process as it's maturing balance sheet continues to deliver strong returns on capital as key cases settle.
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
Oversubscription of Gore Street’s PrimaryBid offer is helpful although given the attractions of the energy storage market perhaps not surprising. The larger placing remains open with results announced at the end of the month. Together the c.£70m raise will provide the fund with ammunition to pursue its strong pipeline of storage opportunities.
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Following the successful completion of the Hawthorn disposal, towards the top-end of our £180-230m range, and the transformation to a pure retail property group we update forecasts and briefly set out our investment thesis ahead of the Group’s CMD. We estimate FFO for FY22F, FY23F and FY24F of 7.2p, 8.3p and 9.4p per share respectively; a 3-year CAGR of c35% over the 3.8p generated in FY21A. Post-Hawthorn, balance sheet metrics have markedly improved, flexibility enhanced, and refinancing risk r
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Gore Street continues to find good projects in the GB market and has today announced a 57MW project in Leicester. It is now more active in seeking projects beyond the UK and RoI in North America and Western Europe and we think there are significant opportunities in these geographies. The company now has a pipeline of 2.5GWh with 2GWh of that in new geographies and 160MWh of that under exclusivity. With these opportunities in mind the company has announced a placing at 107p.
Today's in-line results illustrate the financial impact from restrictions upon face-to-face Insurance sales over the past 15 months. However, they heavily mask the strategic momentum underway across the Group. Since the lifting of restrictions from June, Insurance is exhibiting a strong and accelerating rebound in demand, which should mark an inflection point for policyholder numbers and restore premium income to pre-pandemic levels over the medium-term. We expect the Group's other product lines
Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
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What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Eurowag confirms its intention to undertake an initial public offering on the Main Market (Premium). The Offer would be expected to comprise both (i) new Ordinary Shares to be issued by the Company, raising gross proceeds of approximately EUR200m to support Eurowag's growth strategy and (ii) existing Ordinary Shares to be sold by existing Eurowag shareholders. Eurowag is a leading pan-European
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Poolbeg, Proposed AIM listing and demerger from Open Orphan (ORPH.L). Funds raised as part of Admission will be used primarily to fund the clinical trial costs associated with the development of the Company’s POLB 001 asset as a treatment for severe influenza and to acquire and develop new portfolio assets. Offer details and timing TBA
Wise, the Fintech and payments start-up is planning to pull the trigger on a direct listing on the London Stock Exchange as s
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Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
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In-line interim results to 30 June 2021 show revenues up 93% to £8.5m, EBITDA up 118% to £2.4m and AUM up 15% to £1.1bn compared with the FTSE All Share, which grew 11.1%. DFM assets outperformed the All Share by almost 4x, increasing 40% to £606m. Recent acquisitions are all performing as initially expected, with the full opportunities that can be realised as a result of the network effects and joined up approach, likely yet to come. While EBITDA is performing very well, reaching 54% of our 202
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AfriTin* (ATM LN) – Conditional credit approval for Uis mine expansion
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Caerus Mineral Resources (CMRS LN) – Raising £1.5m in placing and subscription
GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Extension of Gold Loan
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Battery storage facility to be installed at Queensland mine
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Big Technologies (BIG) provides market leading electronic monitoring (EM) systems on a SaaS (Software as a Service) basis primarily to criminal justice systems around the world. EM involves utilising location technologies to remotely monitor and manage people within correctional systems.
Companies: Big Technologies PLC
Belvoir’s H1 2021 results are exceptionally strong, with adj. EPS up +50%. They were, of course, aided by a very buoyant housing market, but this does not detract from the strategic progress the group continues to make. The group’s growth strategy has supported 24 years of unbroken profit growth and, while 2022 will likely see cooler market conditions, there are increasing signs it will be a gradual return to more normal conditions. The acquisition of Nicholas Humphreys in H1 and The Nottingham
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC