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The Q3 23 results were solid, coming in above the consensus and our own expectations. The Special Steel business as well as the “Americas” proved resilient in terms of prices while Europe and the “side-businesses” suffered. Lower input costs led to satisfactory results.
The sound cash generation led the group to suggest a share buy-back (up to 4.5% of the share capital at the current price).
We will revise our forecasts and target price a tick upwards.
Companies: SSAB (SSAB-A:STO)SSAB AB Class B (SSAB.B:OME)
SAAB released Q223 numbers which were almost in line with the street’s expectations.
That said, the market focused on the deteriorating outlook going in to Q3 and possibly the end of the year.
Europe, in particular, remains a concern.
In this context, we will most likely revise downwards our numbers, at least for FY23.
The Q123 results came in higher than consensus. Of course, they were down compared the fantastic FY22, but held up reasonably well, in particular thanks to volumes. This bodes well for the Swedish group in terms of its ability to post sound results going forward. That said, the momentum in the sector has partly faded away and it is becoming increasingly difficult for players to post strong share price performances.
The group posted, as expected, record results for FY22.
The momentum of the steel market has faded away, but to a lesser extent than feared so far.
Price (and margins) will still decline going into Q1 23.
We will revisit our estimates after this release, as well as integrate the likely share buy-back.
A very decent set of numbers for Q3 22.
The outlook calls for a degree of slowdown in Q4.
We will adjust our numbers a tick to the upside for FY22, with no major impact on valuation.
Despite its low valuation ratios, the stock still suffers from unfavorable momentum.
Companies: SSAB (SSAB-A:STO)SSAB AB Class A (SSAB.A:OME)
SSAB posted a rather fantastic set of results for Q2 22, mainly driven by prices
All divisions performed very well
That said, a number of headwinds should make it harder for this level of performance to continue
We will upgrade our numbers for the current year, but remain cautious beyond H1 22
The impact on valuation is thus likely to be limited
Companies: SSAB AB Class A (0KII:LON)SSAB AB Class A (SSAB.A:OME)
The Q1 22 results came in above consensus, driven by a significant impact from prices.
Less steel from Ukraine and Russia and strong demand explained the still-healthy pricing situation.
Going forward, the planets will not stay this aligned with respect to demand in a context where world economies are slowing.
Higher input costs also will start to weigh.
We will upgrade our (too low) forecasts but remain cautious in terms of opinion, since the momentum will become less favorable.
A very strong Q4 to end a record year
The outlook is positive going into FY22
The net cash position will help the group finance the green transition
We will revise our numbers upwards
The group Q3 report was very solid across the board, with a huge impact from prices leading to record results.
Cash was of course strong, with the group now almost debt-free.
Management is confident for Q4, both in demand and prices terms.
We will revise upwards our numbers and valuation.
H1 numbers came out as impressive as expected
The group posted the best ever quarterly results despite higher input costs
SSAB is now almost debt-free, leaving room for acquisitions/capex
The outlook for Q3 remains positive
We will revisit our numbers even if longer-term visibility remains low
Q1 21 results came in above expectations
Prices have pushed margins, while input costs grew under-proportionately
The outlook for Q2 is very positive
We will revise upwards our numbers and target price
Q4 results exceeded expectations on higher volumes
Cash flow was also quite strong and the group’s balance sheet remains solid
The outlook for Q1 21 is positive on volumes and prices
The group will also benefit from the cost-cutting carried out in FY20
We will revise upwards our forecasts and target price
Companies: SSAB AB Class A
The Q320 numbers came in under market expectations on continued low prices and demand.
The group’s tone is more optimistic going into Q4
We expect to lower our estimates, at least for the current year
The impact on valuation will be limited
Companies: SKWA SSAAF SSABA SSABA SSABAH
Q2 was obviously strongly impacted by the pandemic
Results remained decent though, thanks to cost cutting and lower variable costs
The tone of the release suggests some optimism going forward
We will revise our numbers a tick to the upside, particularly going into FY21-22
Q1 20 was in line, showing a recovery vs the weak Q4 19
The outlook is obviously gloomy with a sharp fall in demand expected for (at least) Q2
The financial structure remains solid, giving some room-for-manoeuvre
We will still revise downwards our forecasts and target price
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on SSAB AB Class A.
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Last week, JOG successfully secured its second GBA farmout, locking in a path to delivering zero-capex barrels. The surprisingly muted share price response to the farm-out leaves JOG trading at an unjustifiably large discount to our valuation. With a material fully funded development project under its belt and a clean balance sheet, JOG presents a very low-cost way to access high quality development barrels for investors and potential acquirers alike. If the threat of M&A does not narrow JOG’s v
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Plexus FY23 revenue and losses were in line with expectations. As well as the further development of its licensee relationship with SLB (Schlumberger), Plexus is focussed on its re-entry into the rental of exploration wellheads from Jack-up rigs, the sale of surface production wellheads and the provision of specialised solutions and applications to operators, particularly for Plug & Abandonment (P&A) work. Plexus won a substantial c£5m special project contract during the year, which was expanded
Companies: Plexus Holdings
• 3Q23 production was 2,518 boe/d, near our forecast of 2,674 boe/d.
• Arrow held US$12.9 mm in cash at the end of September. This is ahead of our expectations of US$6.6 mm on lower capex and opex.
• Four new wells are expected to be on stream by YE23 including RCE 7, RCE-8 and two wells at Oso Pardo.
• Following interpretation of the recently shot 3D seismic at Tapir, Arrow plans to drill a total of 15 wells in 2024 including five exploration wells targeting 3 material and low risk exploration
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Companies: 88E GENI BMS CRU POS XSG
Companies: CPH2 TIDE MRL BRCK JNEO
Alien and the Iron Ore Company of Australia (IOCA), continue to lay the foundations for operations at Hancock, one of its direct shipping iron ore (DSO) projects in Western Australia. Progress made to date ensures that, should a positive investment decision be made following the conclusion of Definitive Feasibility Studies (DFS), Hancock will be in operation and generating cashflow soon after capital is invested.
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
• With the acquisition of interests in Sygna and Statfjord Øst expected to complete in January, the process to establish a stable well-funded producing business in Norway is almost complete. FY23 production at Sygna and Statfjord Øst net to Longboat Norge is ~250 boe/d.
• The acquisition of 49.9% of Longboat Norge by JAPEX in 2023 provides low cost capital and access to a strong balance sheet to develop further the Kveikje area and make acquisitions at no further dilution to Longboat plc.
Companies: Longboat Energy Plc
Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
CPH2 and ATOME have reached a mutual agreement to cease the previous production order made by ATOME. The CPH2 Board of Directors considers it is in the Company’s best of interests to focus its engineering and installation resources in ensuring roll out Membrane Free Electrolysers with current partners Fabrum Solutions Limited, KCA Deutag and, Northern Ireland Water. As part of the agreement, Molecular Energies has requested, and CPH2 has agreed to, a non-binding framework agreement with G-Mobili
Companies: Clean Power Hydrogen PLC
Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.
Companies: TRIN LBE JOG
Companies: Good Energy Group PLC
The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.
Companies: TLOU PTAL HTG ENW ITM BLVN RKH HBR UJO GMS JOG MATD CEG GENL AXL
Andrada Mining (“ATM”) has released interim financial results to 31st Aug, revealing weaker than expected EBITDA of -£0.6m vs H&Pe +£1.8m, but a lower than forecast free cash outflow of -£8.3m vs H&Pe -£9.4m. Post period end, ATM secured a total US$30m in new funding from Orion Resource Partners and Development Bank of Namibia, giving a solid (unaudited) cash balance of £23m as of 27th Nov. We expect profitability to improve in H2 as strip ratios are expected to fall. Earlier this week, ATM anno
Companies: Andrada Mining Limited
Hannam & Partners
Companies: HZM BMN ATM CMCL THX EST GROC PRU
Ariana today reports further results from the on-going drill programme at the Salinbas gold-copper project in northern Turkey, in which it has a 23.5% interest. With the Kiziltepe gold mine in operation (and satellite drill results – RNS 28.11.2023 – pointing to an extended mine life) and the Tavsan copper-gold mine under construction, Salinbas could be the third Ariana project to reach production. Ariana and its partners have been aggressively exploring Salinbas, and the adjoining Ardala and
Companies: Ariana Resources PLC