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SAAB released Q223 numbers which were almost in line with the street’s expectations.
That said, the market focused on the deteriorating outlook going in to Q3 and possibly the end of the year.
Europe, in particular, remains a concern.
In this context, we will most likely revise downwards our numbers, at least for FY23.
Companies: SSAB (SSAB-A:STO)SSAB AB Class B (SSAB.B:OME)
The Q123 results came in higher than consensus. Of course, they were down compared the fantastic FY22, but held up reasonably well, in particular thanks to volumes. This bodes well for the Swedish group in terms of its ability to post sound results going forward. That said, the momentum in the sector has partly faded away and it is becoming increasingly difficult for players to post strong share price performances.
The group posted, as expected, record results for FY22.
The momentum of the steel market has faded away, but to a lesser extent than feared so far.
Price (and margins) will still decline going into Q1 23.
We will revisit our estimates after this release, as well as integrate the likely share buy-back.
A very decent set of numbers for Q3 22.
The outlook calls for a degree of slowdown in Q4.
We will adjust our numbers a tick to the upside for FY22, with no major impact on valuation.
Despite its low valuation ratios, the stock still suffers from unfavorable momentum.
Companies: SSAB (SSAB-A:STO)SSAB AB Class A (SSAB.A:OME)
SSAB posted a rather fantastic set of results for Q2 22, mainly driven by prices
All divisions performed very well
That said, a number of headwinds should make it harder for this level of performance to continue
We will upgrade our numbers for the current year, but remain cautious beyond H1 22
The impact on valuation is thus likely to be limited
Companies: SSAB AB Class A (0KII:LON)SSAB AB Class A (SSAB.A:OME)
The Q1 22 results came in above consensus, driven by a significant impact from prices.
Less steel from Ukraine and Russia and strong demand explained the still-healthy pricing situation.
Going forward, the planets will not stay this aligned with respect to demand in a context where world economies are slowing.
Higher input costs also will start to weigh.
We will upgrade our (too low) forecasts but remain cautious in terms of opinion, since the momentum will become less favorable.
A very strong Q4 to end a record year
The outlook is positive going into FY22
The net cash position will help the group finance the green transition
We will revise our numbers upwards
The group Q3 report was very solid across the board, with a huge impact from prices leading to record results.
Cash was of course strong, with the group now almost debt-free.
Management is confident for Q4, both in demand and prices terms.
We will revise upwards our numbers and valuation.
H1 numbers came out as impressive as expected
The group posted the best ever quarterly results despite higher input costs
SSAB is now almost debt-free, leaving room for acquisitions/capex
The outlook for Q3 remains positive
We will revisit our numbers even if longer-term visibility remains low
Q1 21 results came in above expectations
Prices have pushed margins, while input costs grew under-proportionately
The outlook for Q2 is very positive
We will revise upwards our numbers and target price
Q4 results exceeded expectations on higher volumes
Cash flow was also quite strong and the group’s balance sheet remains solid
The outlook for Q1 21 is positive on volumes and prices
The group will also benefit from the cost-cutting carried out in FY20
We will revise upwards our forecasts and target price
Companies: SSAB AB Class A
The Q320 numbers came in under market expectations on continued low prices and demand.
The group’s tone is more optimistic going into Q4
We expect to lower our estimates, at least for the current year
The impact on valuation will be limited
Companies: SKWA SSAAF SSABA SSABA SSABAH
Q2 was obviously strongly impacted by the pandemic
Results remained decent though, thanks to cost cutting and lower variable costs
The tone of the release suggests some optimism going forward
We will revise our numbers a tick to the upside, particularly going into FY21-22
Q1 20 was in line, showing a recovery vs the weak Q4 19
The outlook is obviously gloomy with a sharp fall in demand expected for (at least) Q2
The financial structure remains solid, giving some room-for-manoeuvre
We will still revise downwards our forecasts and target price
Q419 came in lower than expectations mainly due to destocking in Europe and maintenance in the US
The outlook for Q120 suggests some improvement from this low basis
Profitability for FY19 remained decent though, and the balance-sheet clean (gearing below 20%)
We will most likely not change our numbers/target price much
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Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
PetroTal is a London and Toronto-listed E&P company, holding a 100% interest in the Bretana field, onshore Peru. This delivered production of 19.0mbbl/d in Q2 2023, supporting strong cash flows for the company based on its established oil export routes, onshore cost profile and fiscal terms. On the back of these cash flows and a healthy balance sheet, PetroTal has now established returns to shareholders. As such, the stock offers a strong prospective yield of over 10%, alongside production grow
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations.
• Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon.
• Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects
Companies: Chariot Limited
Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
PetroTal has announced production numbers for July and August, maintaining full year guidance, alongside providing an operational update.
We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
Hannam & Partners
Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m
Alternative Resource Capital
The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio
• Production continues to be impacted by the reduced barge movements to/from Brazil during the low river dry season.
• Production in July of 11,552 bbl/d had been previously reported. Production in August was 12,651 bbl/d, in line with previous indications (~13 mbbl/d).
• We forecast ~12 mbbl/d production in 3Q23.
• The company has re-iterated its FY23 production guidance of 14 15 mbbl/d.
• Important upcoming newsflow includes the potential reopening of the ONP pipeline allowing PetroTal to inc