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10 Jun 2025
First Take: GBG - Focus on strategic progress made

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First Take: GBG - Focus on strategic progress made
GB Group PLC (GBG:LON) | 258 14.2 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 634.4m
- Published:
10 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
FY25 numbers and key messages
FY25 in line with the pre-close with revenue +3%cc to £282.7m, EBITA £67m, +9.5% and EPS 17.4p. Cash conversion of 91.3% is in-line with net debt down to £48.5m (£80.9m FY24). DPS +4.8% to 4.4p totalling a £21m return including the recent £10m announced share buy-back. Expectations remain unchanged, as we anticipated considering we made a small pre-emptive forecast downgrade after the recent update due to potential second order impacts from the tariff debates. We will update forecasts post results but do not expect to make material changes. GBG has commenced workstreams to move from AIM to the Main Market, giving clarity around the speculation of when / if GBG would decide to move.
Divisionals
Ex Fraud, group NRR is 101.1%, in positive territory vs FY24 although with H125 at 102.6% it suggests a slight H2 tempering (Location). Identity revenue grew 3.1% cc to £159m with EMEA & APAC driving growth from cross sells (international data, multi-bureau) and Americas broadly flat. Americas stabilised, a key milestone, with the focus now to grow the business. NRR at 98.2% from 91.5% shows operational changes have helped, and, with the recent new leadership and focus on new customer additions, we would hope for a return to growth. Location grew 6.2% cc to £86.5m from strong upsell and partner channel momentum, although this suggests H2 was c4% (macro from lower e-commerce / retail volumes) as H1 was c8%. Fraud fell 4% cc to £38.1m as previously flagged due to contract timing in H125. The division has undergone a strategic review and will be managed as a standalone operation (Identity areas will be merged) with simplification and investment into the tech stack.
Strategic progress
After a full year under the CEO’s strategic plans, the signs of progress are clear, with improved KPIs. This is the start to the platform re-build from which to drive more material growth into the medium term. Simplification across the business (technology, customer facing operations), Global alignment (brand, messaging, go-to-market), Innovation (GBG Go, AI) and building back the strong group culture and performance ethos have been priorities and will underpin improved growth and returns ahead.
Our View
The valuation reflects limited headline growth delivered to date, but misses the underlying strategic progress, potential growth and returns acceleration this could bring. We retain Buy and our 450p PE based TP.