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21 Oct 2021
First Take: GBG - Momentum continues

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First Take: GBG - Momentum continues
GB Group PLC (GBG:LON) | 252 -2.5 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 617.6m
- Published:
21 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
4 -
A strong H122 update
H122 revenues and profits are expected to be £109m and £27.5m respectively, comfortably ahead of our and the group’s expectations. Excluding disposals, this represents a healthy 12.4% organic sales growth and reported profit growth of 3%, despite the challenging comparatives in the Verification business. Cash conversion was strong, with £39.5m net cash at period end.
Positive trends
Despite the strong H121 for Verification, buoyed by >c£10m of revenue related to the US Stimulus package, the division still posted good H122 growth due to the second stimulus package impact and a boost from Crypto related volumes during some months in the period. In total this amounted to c£7m more revenue than anticipated. Despite a still small like-for-like headwind, strong ‘underlying’ momentum meant the division still reported double digit growth, as implied by the group’s overall c12% organic revenue growth. This figure was also supported by Location continuing the momentum seen in Q421, as these wins delivered a full period contribution, as well as new customer deals. Fraud, as expected, bounced off the low base of H121 with client spending starting to recover.
Forecasts and view
We place our forecasts under review and will update with the figures at the H122 results. We judge that the £7m incremental revenue achieved will contribute to a full year upgrade and, with clear momentum in the business, we would see up to c£220m FY22E revenue as a realistic target. Considering the investment plans of the business, we expect opex to step up in H222 and, as such, foresee a low to mid-single digit million upgrade at the profit line, but will look to gauge this more accurately at the interim results. This suggests our FY23E forecasts look well underpinned. We continue to see GBG as a compelling structural growth play, and reiterate our Buy.