FY23 Revenue of £279m (c4% growth) and c£60m profit are c3% below our estimates but a 10% consensus miss. We understand the US remains weak (crypto, fin tech, general backdrop) but elsewhere trading is progressing relatively well, which gives some encouragement on the mid-term outlook. FY24 GBG expects c4% H124 growth, which seems low considering base effects will be less challenging, but we judge a sensible degree of prudence considering the backdrops. Growth is expected to accelerate through H224 to high single digit but, with limited visibility and FY23 underperformance, the market may want to see evidence of execution first. Margins are seen same as FY23E (c21.5%), which will require tight cost management considering a £3m yoy profit headwind (no intercompany loan FX gain) and likely higher bonuses in FY24 vs FY23, combined with investment requirements. Numbers We opt for 5% revenue growth and 21% margins with our £62.1m profit 9% and 16% below our prior forecast and consensus. The eventual outcome could well be modestly higher or lower depending on how trends fall, but to us the key point is that the level of potential divergence is materially narrowing, which should enable an investment case to be start to be rebuilt. FY23E rev £279.4m (£289m) -3%, EBITA £59.8m (£62.1m), EPS 17.1p (16.4p), FY24E rev £294.4m (£312.8m) -6%, EBITA £62.1m (£68.3m) -9%, EPS 17.2p (19.1p) -10%. View In summary, we see the fundamentals largely intact, both the market and GBG’s positioning. Maybe it won’t hit historic ambitions of 12-14% revenue growth and 24% margins, but the price is far from reflecting this outlook. A period of in-line execution is the next step of sentiment rebuild and, if achieved, a 20x PE rating on a FY25E look-through seems sensible, which supports our 400p TP, with prospects for higher levels when a more ‘normalised’ trading backdrop comes through, or an external bidder surfaces.