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21 Apr 2022
GBG : Strong finish to the year - Buy

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GBG : Strong finish to the year - Buy
GB Group PLC (GBG:LON) | 258 15.5 2.4% | Mkt Cap: 632.6m
- Published:
21 Apr 2022 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Revenue. Sales were £242m vs our £233.8m, including c£13m from Acuant and Cloudcheck, and a c$2m deferred revenue haircut. Organic cc growth is c10.5% but, adjusting out last year’s flagged one-off US stimulus, underlying growth was c15%. This implies c12-13% in H2, a good outcome, especially as it was driven across the business, with customer spending patterns largely normalising and structural drivers continuing to spur demand. H1 underlying growth was 17%, with this off a weaker comp as flagged at the time.
Profits and cash. Operating margins are expected to be c24% with no less than £58m of profit vs our £54.4m, a very solid result. This is also after the impact of the deferred revenue haircut, with underlying likely to be towards c£60m. Year-end net debt is £107m, in-line with our estimates, despite the additional cost of the Cloudcheck acquisition in January.
Acuant. Integration is on track with £3m of cost synergies already deliverable. A remaining £2m will come from efficiency savings and revenue synergies during the year. We understand the teams are already well integrated with objectives set. A major strategic initiative has been the formation of a Global Products group to bring together the key areas of Fraud and IDV roadmaps, using the strengths of the Acuant and IDology combined businesses, which now make up the largest pure play Verification player in the Americas.
Forecasts. We update FY22E for the trading update, but leave FY23E unchanged although we see it as well underpinned. Pro forma revenue of £275m on 12-14% growth, less c£8m from the one-off stimulus at 24% target margins is well within our FY23E estimates. The market backdrop is strong and it will be down to execution of organic growth and Acuant delivery.
View. The tech sell-off has put the stock back three years, despite it now being an even stronger, broader, and thus more compelling story. The valuation leaves plenty of scope for upside re-rating as execution comes through.