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26 Nov 2019
GBG : Very strong H120 gives underpin to FY20E - Buy

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GBG : Very strong H120 gives underpin to FY20E - Buy
GB Group PLC (GBG:LON) | 258 14.2 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 634.4m
- Published:
26 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Results. Revenue of £94.3m was up 62% reported and 17% organic, with strength across the board. Excluding the impact of favourable timing on some material Fraud deals, organic growth was c12-13%. Profits of £21.5m compares to the October trading statement estimate of £20.9m and was up 119% yoy driven by organic progress and acquisitions (Vix and Idology). Cash conversion of 104% meant debt continued to be paid down, with H120 net debt of £53.8m versus £66.2m at FY19.
Highlights. International revenues are now 57% of the group, up from 35%, which marks a key milestone and ambition in the internationalisation of the business. This was driven by continued organic growth in EMEA, China & NA combined with the impact of the US IDology and Asia Pac Vix Verify businesses. We see the successful integration of both these businesses as a major positive, with both performing strongly post acquisition. GBG continues to expand its dataset reach (eg UK Educational Data, Indian Driving Licences and NavInfo Europe providing address data for mainland China).
Investment. Top line traction gives good underpinning to FY20E supporting continued investment (micro service product platforms, enterprise sales force hires, product rationalisation, geographic expansion) in internationalising the business around its three core areas of Fraud, Verification and Location.
Forecasts. Despite the strong H120, we leave our forecasts unchanged which implies a broadly flat EBITA H220E on H120 (£22.5m vs £21.5m) largely due to the cost build coming through as well as us remaining conservative on H220E revenue progression considering the variable macro backdrop.
Investment view. The stock reached our previous target price following strength in the shares post the trading update. While we expect the shares to consolidate around current levels for now, forecast underpinning allows a long term valuation view and we up our PE based TP to 725p. Buy retained.