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  • 29 Jul 2021

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Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 891 73.1 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 11,572m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Kassab Sami SK | Maas Annick AM

    • 7 pages


 

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Informa Plc (INF:LON) | 891 73.1 0.9% | Mkt Cap: 11,572m


  • Published: 29 Jul 2021
  • Author: Kassab Sami SK | Maas Annick AM
  • Pages: 7
  • BNP Paribas Exane


H1 surprised on the upside H1 group revenues came in at GBP689m (-7.5% org) with adjusted operating profit at GBP69m, beating estimates by over 20%. Markets revenues, at GBP188m, and also Tech and Intelligence at GBP58m and GBP162m respectively, surprised on the upside. The strong performance of subscription renewals led to a high FCF of GBP134m (vs GBP71m the previous year) which consequently lowered the net debt to GBP1.9bn. Other Event snippets Management underlined the upbeat forward bookings and low rebate requests across its Event portfolio, which it expects to further rise as companies raise their budgets again with the pandemic coming to an end. Also, increased flexibility around deposits helps. At this stage, the group has underlined that the growth is volume-led (across the divisions). Overall, management seems happy with regard to the Tech and Connect event portfolios but expects a reduction in number of events in Markets to c85% of the level in 2019, which we believe could be helpful for the mid-term margin. Guidance raised The group guided to cGBP1.8bn group revenues (vs GBP1.7bn previously) with Event revenues at cGBP900m for the FY helped by more face-to-face attendance than initially anticipated. In terms of operating profit, the guidance is for GBP375m. Intelligence is expected to grow 4.5% organically in the year and TandF should rise by c2% organically. For next year, management suggested that a 65-80% revenue level of 2019 seemed fair. While GAP II details will be disclosed at the CMD in December, management indicated a capex level of cGBP100m over the next three years. Reiterate Outperform We update our model for H1, FX and make minor estimate changes. In Connect we deconsolidate the disposal of Barbour EHS and we slightly raise our Events estimates for FY21. As a consequence, our EPS rises by 2% in FY22 leading to a very small TP upgrade as well.

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