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24 Oct 2024
First Take: Dunelm - 1Q25 – Positive start
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First Take: Dunelm - 1Q25 – Positive start
Dunelm Group plc (DNLM:LON) | 1,122 -89.7 (-0.7%) | Mkt Cap: 2,260m
- Published:
24 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
1Q25 – Positive start to the year
Q1 total sales are +3.5% YoY, driven by volume; this was against a tough comp last year (1Q23 +9.2%) and Q424 sales +4.1% YoY. The comparative gets much softer as the year progresses. Digital sales now represent 37% of sales, up 2% YoY.
Sales growth was broad-based across categories, with positive results coming through from investments in made-to-measure and click & collect, where over half of SKUs on dunelm.com are now available for collection in store.
Gross margin was up 20bps with management continuing to expect FY gross margin of 51% to 52%.
No change to consensus expected given so early in the year
No change to consensus expected given it is so early in the year. Company-compiled FY25 PBT is £213m, with a range £210m-£218m.
Trading conditions remain volatile, according to management, and they are yet to see any meaningful change in underlying consumer confidence. We see upside risk to forecasts when consumer spending habits return to normal, given Dunelm’s momentum and recent market share gains. Valuation (CY25E PE of 14.5x) does not reflects its attractive cash generation and growth opportunities in our view. Shares are down 2%/+9% on a 3 month/YTD.