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09 Sep 2022
Gear4music : Slower tempo - Buy

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Gear4music : Slower tempo - Buy
Gear4music (Holdings) PLC (G4M:LON) | 297 11.9 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 62.3m
- Published:
09 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Andrew Blain -
Pages:
7 -
AGM update comes at an inauspicious moment. Summer has been a challenging trading period for the sector, with the well-documented cost of living squeeze and unusually hot weather across Europe. The UK business is lapping relatively tough comparative performance, whereas the European operation has performed better following the opening of new distribution hubs in Republic of Ireland and Spain. Overall uncertainty in the consumer outlook sees management revise down FY revenue guidance to £155m (vs our previous £166.1m) with EBITDA of £9m (we had £11.6m).
Still upbeat on prospects. The aforementioned macroeconomic challenges have combined with a sharp pull back in ecommerce spend – since Nov-21 UK internet share of total retail has declined from 32% to 25%. Nevertheless, management still anticipates reporting FY revenue growth of c5% with the European business continuing to take shape and the launch of AV.com making ‘good progress’. Overall, this remains a nascent business with market share of 9% in the UK and 2% in Europe, plus the adjacent multi-billion audio-visual market is now opening up, giving scope for significant long term growth.
Downgrade priced in, we believe. The stock is down >80% YTD as fears for the consumer sector, particularly ecommerce, have ramped up. The operational gearing impact means this 25% downgrade to our FY23E EBITDA estimate sees Adjusted EPS decrease by 81%. However, as a well-established platform with a sizeable growth opportunity, we do not consider short term earnings metrics an appropriate valuation methodology; our DCF-driven target price reduces 21% to 404p.