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28 Jul 2021
1H 21 results and questions for management

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1H 21 results and questions for management
Croda International Plc (CRDA:LON) | 2,690 -1237.6 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 3,757m
- Published:
28 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Vesterinen Heidi HV | Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
11 -
H1 beat with growth across all segments vs 2019 levels
Croda reported a strong H1 with a beat in all divisions, led by Life Sciences including a higher contribution from the COVID vaccine as well as strength in the underlying business. Management confirmed the beat can be extrapolated into H2 as they expect the usual H1/H2 weighting of c52%/48%, pointing to FY21 PBT of around GBP430m+, c13% ahead of consensus. They also confirmed a similar y/y contribution from lipid systems into FY22 (primarily for the COVID vaccine), also ahead of consensus expectations which had assumed a y/y moderation.
Favourable backdrop into H2 and beyond
We upgrade our FY21 PBT estimate by 13% to GBP446m and FY22 by 6%. We increase our price target to GBP8200 on the back of the earnings upgrades. We see a favourable backdrop for Croda into H2 and beyond as it benefits from the ''out of home'' consumer recovery and broader industrial recovery whilst Life Sciences remains strong. However, shares have re-rated through 2020/21. On our new FY22 estimates, Croda trades on 21x FY22 EV/EBITDA and 2.6% FCF yield which is in line with the Consumer Ingredients avg which seems fair to us; we maintain our Neutral rating.
Life Sciences mid term topline outlook upgraded to 7-10%
Back at FY results, management had called 2021 as a ''potentially transformational year'' for Life Sciences thanks to the partnership with Pfizer/BioNTech for the COVID-19 vaccine as well as pipeline opportunities in its legacy business and other lipid systems applications beyond the COVID vaccine. This transformation seems to be playing out with the division delivering 47% organic growth y/y including 17% in the underlying business ex lipid systems. Management upgraded its mid-term topline outlook to 7-10% vs 5-7% previously, driven by its confidence in Healthcare in particular.
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