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25 Jul 2023
H1 23 results and questions for management

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H1 23 results and questions for management
Croda International Plc (CRDA:LON) | 2,664 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 3,720m
- Published:
25 Jul 2023 -
Author:
Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
12 -
No surprises post the warning in June
Croda reported H1 PBT of GBP174m, -42% y/y and in line with latest consensus. After the big warning in June, there was limited incremental news. Pro forma volumes declined -18% y/y in H1 driven by destocking across Consumer Care and in Crop with margins -660bps y/y mainly on negative volume leverage.
Small signs of green shoots? Visibility limited to two weeks
After pronounced destocking since July 2022, Croda has seen some signs of sequential improvement with Consumer Care volumes up sequentially through H1 albeit -14% y/y. They attributed -10% of the volume decline to destocking/weaker demand and -4% to business disruption due to previous capacity constraints. Management sounded constructive on the stabilisation in volumes from here but emphasised order book visibility is extremely limited at this stage.
FY23 guidance reiterated, implying limited underlying improvement in H2
Management reiterated guidance for FY23 PBT of GBP370-400m or -22% y/y at the midpoint. Taking into account GBP25m of EBIT due in H2 from the Pfizer lipids contract, the guidance implies an underlying improvement of 7% h/h at the midpoint but limited h/h progress at the bottom end of the range. We tweak FY23 estimates up by 2% to GBP382m of PBT in FY23 and stay Neutral. Shares are trading on 14.4x 2024 EV/EBITDA and broadly in line with the Ingredients average.
If we could ask one question (more inside)
Can you discuss the difference in trends between Beauty Actives and Beauty Care? As inputs decline, to what extent do you need ''give back'' some of the price to customers, particularly if the demand environment weakens?