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  • 11 Nov 2024

Q324 sales and 15 questions for management


Croda International Plc (CRDA:LON) | 2,734 -656 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 3,817m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Lim Joan JL | Tang Nicola NT

    • 14 pages


 

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Q324 sales and 15 questions for management


Croda International Plc (CRDA:LON) | 2,734 -656 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 3,817m


  • Published: 11 Nov 2024
  • Author: Lim Joan JL | Tang Nicola NT
  • Pages: 14
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Summary of Q324 sales Croda Q3 sales were GBP407m, +5% y/y and +2% vs consensus. Constant FX growth was +8% y/y (VA cons +6.9%) driven by volumes. Consumer Care grew +7% in constant currencies (vs cons +9.6%) driven by ongoing momentum in FandF and Home Care, with good demand from local customers in Beauty but lower demand from MNCs compared to the previous quarter. Life Sciences grew +6% (vs cons +0.2%) driven by higher sales in both Crop Protection and Seed. News Management reiterated its FY24 PBT guidance range of GBP260-280m at constant currencies. FX is now expected to be a GBP-14m headwind vs GBP11.5m previously based on rates as of 30th Sept. The company flagged improving volumes in Ag thanks to more stable customer inventories. Earnings We lower estimates by -3%/-5% in FY24/25 reflecting lower margins and FX. Investment thesis and rating Volumes are starting to stabilise following material weakness and subsequent operating leverage headwinds in recent years. Shares are trading at a 5-10% discount to its LT history however with continued low visibility, we stay Neutral. Target price Our target price moves to GBP4,300/share from GBP4,460. 15 questions for management To what extent should we be concerned by slowing q/q demand with MNC beauty customers in Q3? Do you think this reflects market share loss to local and regionals customers (given continued good demand in Q3) or weakness in the underlying market?

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