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Once again, the market’s fears over the sustainability of the net interest margin have proven misplaced as confirmed by the quarterly surprise and the group’s updated guidance for 2024.
Companies: CaixaBank (CABK:BME)CaixaBank SA (CABK:MCE)
AlphaValue
The management has upgraded its 2023 expectations and is likely to do the same for 2024 in the first quarter of next year. This reflects a slower-than-expected deposit repricing which could be less accidental than officially stated, paving the way for a more resilient recovery in profitability.
The quarter enjoyed stronger net interest rate tailwinds and more resilient asset quality trends, thus enabling the management to upgrade its full-year guidance.
The fourth quarter results enjoyed a stronger-than-expected net interest margin recovery. The Euribor tailwind will remain very strong this year. However, this will be mitigated by weaker non-interest income, strong cost inflation, and an increased cost of risk.
Like its peers, the group has enjoyed the full benefit of interest rate hikes without having to share this with employees and depositors, or book provisions for an asset quality deterioration. The management believes that these ideal operating conditions will largely recur in 2023.
While the quarter showed strong fee income generation, the earnings beat was also attributable to non-sustainable factors, thus limiting the upgrade potential in our view.
Less supportive short-term outlook for protective films Following very strong volume growth last year, the protective film business faces a high comparison basis (from Q2 22 onwards) while its end markets (construction and interior) are not as supportive, reflecting more adverse economic conditions. Pricing is expected to remain a strong driver combatting the continued spike in polyethylene prices, which should ultimately limit margin expansion. Fashion catching up, Museum Solutions not yet at
Companies: Chargeurs SA (CRI:PAR)CaixaBank SA (0ILK:LON)
BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
Like many of its peers, CABK views the current environment as the best in the world, as if the only potential outcome of the escalating tensions between the West and the East was the end of negative interest rates. Not only the group’s view is already largely factored in the consensus expectations (and ours), but it could prove too optimistic in our view.
Q1 22 sales tracking ahead Q1 22 sales tracked 9% above our expectations at EUR204m, up 8.1% like-for-like. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends in protective films (+22%) and fashion (+58%) while healthcare came short against a high comparison basis. The museum business (+25%) continued to benefit from the recovery in retail and events activities as well as the return of long-term projects. Pricing ramping up Prices were a major driver in Q1 22. In protective films, they
In our view, the underlying quarterly trends were in line with expectations thus enabling the management to reiterate its full-year guidance.
Slight adjustments to our FY22-23 outlook EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 1.32 vs 1.36 -3.18% 2023 : € 1.48 vs 1.52 -2.36% We have incorporated the FY21 figures, with the group's net result outperforming our forecast by €0.24 per share. This was mostly explained by a higher operating performance for CPF and CHS, slightly offset by a lower than expected operating result for CFT-PCC. For FY22-23, the main changes to our forecast stem from a slight cut to our operating margin assumpti
Q4 21 sales sharply ahead of forecasts Chargeurs posted Q4 21 sales of EUR191m, up 43%, of which 41% was LFL. This came 20% above our EUR160m (+20%e LFL) estimate. The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends across the board except at the healthcare solutions division (against high comps). Revenues stood 19% above 2019 level on a LFL basis. FY 2021 EBIT in line reflecting input cost headwinds FY 21 EBIT came in at EUR51m, down 36% YOY (against Covid boosted earnings in 2020) and
The fourth quarter operating trends are in line with the group’s 10% RoTE objective set for 2022 (without any interest rates support). Ongoing strong fee income generation, merger-related cost savings and the benign cost of risk will help absorb net interest margin headwinds.
Stronger than expected Q3 21 sales trends Chargeurs posted Q3 21 sales of EUR173m up 2% of which 0.7% LFL. This came 13% above our forecast of EUR153m (-10% organic growth). The upside to expectations was driven by stronger trends at CPF, CFT PCC and Luxury Materials. Strong CPF, CFT PCC gradually returning to normal CPF (+28% LFL) continued to see strong trends driven by demand in construction and price hikes. CFT PCC (+20% LFL) saw a strong momentum in the US where sales were above 2019 lev
The quarter exceeded expectations on lower loan impairments but slightly disappointed on the top-line front driven by low activity levels.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CaixaBank SA. We currently have 0 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
UK commercial property has been a cornerstone asset for many income-seeking investors (both retail and institutional) in recent decades, particularly since the global financial crisis of 2007/8 and the resulting ultra-low interest rate environment. However, since rates began to rise in 2022 to tackle surging inflation, meaningful returns have once more become available on lower-risk assets such as cash and government bonds, which has led to a retrenchment from alternative income assets such as p
Companies: LABS SREI SUPR AEWU
Capital Access Group
Attend our SREI Investor Webinar, 15th May 9-10am. Nick Montgomery, Head of UK Real Estate Investment, will provide an intro to the Trust and answer live questions.
Companies: Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Ltd
Companies: Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited
Liberum
We reviewed NBPE’s business model in our initiation, Co-investments generating superior performance. We noted the high-secular-growth and downside-resilient investee companies, the value added by GPs, the good co-investing cashflow and return profile and the value added by the NB. The 2023 results confirmed all these trends. The key numbers were i) NAV p/sh $28.07 (£22.02), ii) private portfolio +5.3% in 2023 on a constant currency basis, iii) EV/LTM EBITDA 14.9x, and iv) debt/EBITDA 5.3x. The p
Companies: NB Private Equity Partners Limited Class A
Hardman & Co
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Negative growth continues, fractionally worse than the market previously thought, but the rest seems to be on track (synergies/ cost control), and market rises mean that consensus estimates will end up close to our new forecasts, which rise 5% this year and next. The stock is up 16% since our note of mid-March (here), but the FT All-Share is +8% since then and, as we argued at the time, RAT was way too cheap. We believe a significant value opportunity remains, but there is now in our opinion als
Companies: Rathbones Group PLC
Hannam & Partners
NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF) is almost 10 years old. Since launch, it has built a £1.2bn, 933MW portfolio of 100 operating solar assets, powering the equivalent of over 330,000 homes, declared dividends totalling £333m, and avoided the emission of about 2.2 Mt CO2e. NESF is on track to pay 8.35p in dividends, with forecast dividend cover of about 1.3x. Share price weakness that has afflicted the whole sector means that dividend translates to a yield of 11.1%, one of the highest in its sector, a
Companies: NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd
QuotedData
Companies: Zegona Communications Plc
Canaccord Genuity
Companies: Asian Energy Impact Trust plc Shs USD
Shore Capital
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) is the largest UK fund investing in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS). A recent sharp decline in gas prices, a ‘disappointing’ start to the Energy System Operator’s (ESO’s) new energy trading platform and systemic delays connecting completed projects to the national grid have raised concerns about the revenue generating capacity of the BESS sector. This has placed significant downward pressure on the share prices of GRID and others in th
Companies: Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc GBP
Edison
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) has been managed by Lindsell Train since the beginning of 2001. During his long tenure, approaching a quarter of a century, lead manager Nick Train has steadily acquired a significant 2.9% personal holding in the trust, which is a considerable amount of ‘skin in the game’. From the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2023, FGT’s 9.0% annual NAV total return was comfortably ahead of the UK market’s 5.1% annual total return. However, Train and deputy manager Mad
Companies: Finsbury Growth & Income Trust PLC
Chesnara has announced its 2023 results. Positive returns from equity markets and gains from acquisitions in the first half were somewhat offset by adverse changes to operating assumptions in the second. Economic Value profit of £59.1m marked a good turnaround from a loss of £85.1m in 2022. Economic Value of £524.7m was 2% higher than a year ago, reflecting the dividend payment and forex effects. The final dividend of 15.61p brought the full year up to 23.97p, a 3% increase over the previous yea
Companies: Chesnara Plc
The Bankers Investment Trust (BNKR) has been managed by Alex Crooke, co-head of equities at Janus Henderson Investors (JHI), since July 2003. It can be considered as a ‘one-stop shop’ for global equity exposure as the fund is made up of six geographic portfolios (sleeves), which harness the talent of JHI’s regional specialists. Crooke (in conjunction with the board) sets BNKR’s asset allocation and manages its gearing. He believes that inflation will remain elevated, and that future shareholder
Companies: Bankers Investment Trust PLC GBP
NextEnergy Solar Fund has extended its £70m revolving credit facility by a year to June 2025 and improved the margin by 10bps. Along with the refinancing of £135m announced in April the move shows a willingness amongst lenders to support solar energy and storage on attractive terms in our view.
Longspur Clean Energy
PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following
Companies: PCI-PAL PLC
Cavendish
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