STRL reported 4Q:25 sales and EPS 17% and 19% above our respective forecasts, once again led by stronger-than-expected sales in E-Infrastructure (which grew 123%, 67% organic; we had forecasted an 81% gain and 32% organic growth).
Key takeaways from 4Q:25 include improved visibility into a multiyear pipeline of project work (approaching $4.5 billion), ongoing strong project execution within mission critical projects (now 84% of E-Infrastructure backlog), and the potential for semiconductor project work to enter backlog as early as 2026.
As projects increase in size and complexity, we believe the scarcity of STRL's execution at scale will drive pricing power and margin expansion, in turn driving a more durable earnings profile.
We raise our 2026-2027 estimates to EPS of $12.64 and $15.78 (from $11.61 and $14.70, respectively), as we embed increased E-Infrastructure sales compared to our prior forecast.
STRL held net cash of $100 million at 4Q:25 and continues to generate strong free cash flow consistently, supporting our moderate risk rating.
Our raised $505 price target (from $470) is based on a steady 32x our increased 2027 EPS estimate of $15.78 (from $14.70).
02 Mar 2026
STRL's 4Q:25 Beat Expectations; Execution At Scale Continues To Resonate With Larger, Mission-Critical Projects; Lift Estimates, Price Target To $505 (From $470)
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STRL's 4Q:25 Beat Expectations; Execution At Scale Continues To Resonate With Larger, Mission-Critical Projects; Lift Estimates, Price Target To $505 (From $470)
STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO (STRL:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
02 Mar 2026 -
Author:
Julio Romero -
Pages:
11 -
STRL reported 4Q:25 sales and EPS 17% and 19% above our respective forecasts, once again led by stronger-than-expected sales in E-Infrastructure (which grew 123%, 67% organic; we had forecasted an 81% gain and 32% organic growth).
Key takeaways from 4Q:25 include improved visibility into a multiyear pipeline of project work (approaching $4.5 billion), ongoing strong project execution within mission critical projects (now 84% of E-Infrastructure backlog), and the potential for semiconductor project work to enter backlog as early as 2026.
As projects increase in size and complexity, we believe the scarcity of STRL's execution at scale will drive pricing power and margin expansion, in turn driving a more durable earnings profile.
We raise our 2026-2027 estimates to EPS of $12.64 and $15.78 (from $11.61 and $14.70, respectively), as we embed increased E-Infrastructure sales compared to our prior forecast.
STRL held net cash of $100 million at 4Q:25 and continues to generate strong free cash flow consistently, supporting our moderate risk rating.
Our raised $505 price target (from $470) is based on a steady 32x our increased 2027 EPS estimate of $15.78 (from $14.70).