We continue to view STRL as among the biggest winners of the broader industry trend towards increasing project complexity, and well-positioned to monetize the industry's labor, power, and reliability constraints.
By acquiring CEC (closed 3Q:25), STRL's suite of services now includes the top two most common issues that hyperscalers and mission critical end use customers cite as the key bottlenecks on a construction project: (specialty site prep and electrical work).
For 4Q:25, we model adjusted EPS of $2.46, up 68% year over year, on a 45% rise (16% organic) in adjusted sales of $648 million, with growth led by E-Infrastructure.
Beyond the quarter, we forecast EPS advances of 19% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, led by E-Infrastructure's ongoing mix shift towards large mission critical projects (including data centers, which we estimate comprise 26% of 2025E sales).
STRL held net cash of $12 million at quarter-end 3Q:25; the strong record of free cash flow generation continues to support our moderate risk rating.
We maintain our $470 price target based on 32x our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $14.70.
23 Feb 2026
We View STRL As Well-Positioned To Monetize Its Ability To Alleviate Physical Constraints And Handle Rising Complexity Across Mission-Critical Projects; Maintain $470 Price Target
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We View STRL As Well-Positioned To Monetize Its Ability To Alleviate Physical Constraints And Handle Rising Complexity Across Mission-Critical Projects; Maintain $470 Price Target
STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO (STRL:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Julio Romero -
Pages:
11 -
We continue to view STRL as among the biggest winners of the broader industry trend towards increasing project complexity, and well-positioned to monetize the industry's labor, power, and reliability constraints.
By acquiring CEC (closed 3Q:25), STRL's suite of services now includes the top two most common issues that hyperscalers and mission critical end use customers cite as the key bottlenecks on a construction project: (specialty site prep and electrical work).
For 4Q:25, we model adjusted EPS of $2.46, up 68% year over year, on a 45% rise (16% organic) in adjusted sales of $648 million, with growth led by E-Infrastructure.
Beyond the quarter, we forecast EPS advances of 19% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, led by E-Infrastructure's ongoing mix shift towards large mission critical projects (including data centers, which we estimate comprise 26% of 2025E sales).
STRL held net cash of $12 million at quarter-end 3Q:25; the strong record of free cash flow generation continues to support our moderate risk rating.
We maintain our $470 price target based on 32x our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $14.70.