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  • 18 Mar 2026

Lower Estimates Reflect Near-Term Margin Pressure, But Execution Remains Strong And Supports Long-Term Opportunity, In Our View; Lower Price Target To $6 (From $7)


HF Foods Group Inc (HFFG:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Daniel Harriman

    • 10 pages


 

HF Foods reported 4Q:25 sales of $308.0 million, ahead of our $305.7 million estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.05 fell below our $0.10 estimate as margins came in lower than expected. For 2025, HF Foods reported sales of $1.23 billion, up 2.2% year over year, driven by volume growth and pricing in Seafood and Meat & Poultry and volume growth in Commodity, partially offset by declines in other categories. Adjusted EPS increased to $0.32 from $0.26 despite gross margin compression to 16.9% The company continued to execute its transformation strategy in 2025, completing its ERP rollout, consolidating sales operations, and advancing key distribution investments, including the Atlanta expansion, Charlotte buildout, and Chicago facility acquisition. Management expects low-single-digit growth in 2026 as the company navigates cost pressures, tariffs, and a competitive pricing environment. We now model 2026 sales of $1.255 billion, up 2.2% year over year, and 2027 sales of $1.300 billion, with gross margin of 16.91% and 17.84% and distribution, selling and administrative expenses (DS&A) of 16.25% and 15.62% of sales, respectively. We are lowering our 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS estimates to $0.35 and $0.60 (from $0.52 and $0.70), respectively, reflecting a more gradual pace of margin expansion as gross margin remains constrained in the near term and DS&A declines more slowly than previously anticipated. HF Foods ended 2025 with $8.6 million in cash, compared to $14.5 million at the end of 2024, and total debt of $106.1 million, while maintaining access to $61.2 million of additional liquidity under its $125 million revolving credit facility. We lower our price target on HFFG shares to $6 (from $7), which remains based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.60. Our prior $7 price target was based on 10x our previous 2027 EPS estimate of $0.70. Our moderate risk rating is supported by transformation progress, improved purchasing scale, and estimated long-term earnings power.

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Lower Estimates Reflect Near-Term Margin Pressure, But Execution Remains Strong And Supports Long-Term Opportunity, In Our View; Lower Price Target To $6 (From $7)


HF Foods Group Inc (HFFG:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 18 Mar 2026
  • Author: Daniel Harriman
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


HF Foods reported 4Q:25 sales of $308.0 million, ahead of our $305.7 million estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.05 fell below our $0.10 estimate as margins came in lower than expected. For 2025, HF Foods reported sales of $1.23 billion, up 2.2% year over year, driven by volume growth and pricing in Seafood and Meat & Poultry and volume growth in Commodity, partially offset by declines in other categories. Adjusted EPS increased to $0.32 from $0.26 despite gross margin compression to 16.9% The company continued to execute its transformation strategy in 2025, completing its ERP rollout, consolidating sales operations, and advancing key distribution investments, including the Atlanta expansion, Charlotte buildout, and Chicago facility acquisition. Management expects low-single-digit growth in 2026 as the company navigates cost pressures, tariffs, and a competitive pricing environment. We now model 2026 sales of $1.255 billion, up 2.2% year over year, and 2027 sales of $1.300 billion, with gross margin of 16.91% and 17.84% and distribution, selling and administrative expenses (DS&A) of 16.25% and 15.62% of sales, respectively. We are lowering our 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS estimates to $0.35 and $0.60 (from $0.52 and $0.70), respectively, reflecting a more gradual pace of margin expansion as gross margin remains constrained in the near term and DS&A declines more slowly than previously anticipated. HF Foods ended 2025 with $8.6 million in cash, compared to $14.5 million at the end of 2024, and total debt of $106.1 million, while maintaining access to $61.2 million of additional liquidity under its $125 million revolving credit facility. We lower our price target on HFFG shares to $6 (from $7), which remains based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.60. Our prior $7 price target was based on 10x our previous 2027 EPS estimate of $0.70. Our moderate risk rating is supported by transformation progress, improved purchasing scale, and estimated long-term earnings power.

More Content

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Strong 1Q:26 Revenue Beat Reinforces Execution Momentum; Near-Term Cost Headwinds Inform Conservative Estimates; Long-Term Thesis Intact; Maintain $6 Price Target

Companies: HF Foods Group Inc

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Margin Execution And Strategic Investment Support FY25/26 Outlook; Maintaining Estimates As HFFG Advances Transformation And Positions For 2026 Growth; Maintain $7 Price Target

Companies: HF Foods Group Inc

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Execution Remains Strong, As HF Foods Continues Building The Foundation For Long-Term Earnings Power, In Our View; Maintain $6 Price Target

Companies: HF Foods Group Inc

Sidoti & Company

2Q:25 Performance Reinforces HFFG's Strategic Progress And Transformation; Our Near-Term Estimates Are Intact, As We Balance Caution With Long-Term Optimism; Maintain $7 Price Targe

Companies: HF Foods Group Inc

Sidoti & Company

Transformation Progress And Distribution Investments Support Improving Execution And Long-Term Earnings Power, In Our View; Maintain $7 Price Target

Companies: HF Foods Group Inc

Sidoti & Company
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