We model double-digit EPS expansion in 2026, underpinned by the increasing global WFE (wafer fab equipment) market and secular trends in higher margin Sealing end markets, partially offset by continued growth investments (including qualification for domestic advanced node production),
Earlier this month, SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, forecast WFE sales growth of 9.0% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2027, following an 11.0% increase this year, driven by rising investments in advanced logic and memory technologies.
We forecast 9% revenue growth for Advanced Surface Technologies (AST) in 2026, essentially in line with the global WFE projection from SEMI.
While we would normally anticipate AST exceeding WFE growth, we note the $12 million in lower margin pull forward revenue supporting legacy programs to 2025.
We project almost 12% sales expansion (5% organic) for Sealing, benefiting from the 4Q:25 acquisitions of Overlook Industries and AlpHa Measurement Solutions (which management anticipates will add $60 million in annual revenue).
We expect continued demand growth in commercial space, biopharma and nuclear energy is offset by ongoing weakness in the commercial vehicle market.
We model net leverage rising to 2.0x at year end 2026 with $280 million of 4Q:25 acquisitions funded by the revolver. We forecast debt reduction through 2026-2027 but expect M&A remains the primary use of cash.
Our $257 price target is based on an unchanged 27x our average 2026-2027 EPS forecast of $9.53. Our moderate risk rating is supported by near 100% cash conversion and NPO's solid balance sheet.
22 Dec 2025
2026 Outlook: Forecast Double-Digit EPS Growth, Driven By Expanded Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending And Secular Trends In Higher Margin Sealing Markets; Maintain $257 Target
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2026 Outlook: Forecast Double-Digit EPS Growth, Driven By Expanded Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending And Secular Trends In Higher Margin Sealing Markets; Maintain $257 Target
We model double-digit EPS expansion in 2026, underpinned by the increasing global WFE (wafer fab equipment) market and secular trends in higher margin Sealing end markets, partially offset by continued growth investments (including qualification for domestic advanced node production),
Earlier this month, SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, forecast WFE sales growth of 9.0% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2027, following an 11.0% increase this year, driven by rising investments in advanced logic and memory technologies.
We forecast 9% revenue growth for Advanced Surface Technologies (AST) in 2026, essentially in line with the global WFE projection from SEMI.
While we would normally anticipate AST exceeding WFE growth, we note the $12 million in lower margin pull forward revenue supporting legacy programs to 2025.
We project almost 12% sales expansion (5% organic) for Sealing, benefiting from the 4Q:25 acquisitions of Overlook Industries and AlpHa Measurement Solutions (which management anticipates will add $60 million in annual revenue).
We expect continued demand growth in commercial space, biopharma and nuclear energy is offset by ongoing weakness in the commercial vehicle market.
We model net leverage rising to 2.0x at year end 2026 with $280 million of 4Q:25 acquisitions funded by the revolver. We forecast debt reduction through 2026-2027 but expect M&A remains the primary use of cash.
Our $257 price target is based on an unchanged 27x our average 2026-2027 EPS forecast of $9.53. Our moderate risk rating is supported by near 100% cash conversion and NPO's solid balance sheet.