We model almost 10% year-over-year revenue growth to $283.5 million in 4Q:25 with EPS improvement to $1.94 from the year-earlier $1.57.
We anticipate Advanced Surface Technologies (AST) sales expanded 10.0% year over year in 4Q:25, largely in line with improving wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending, with Sealing up 9.5% on low- to mid-single-digit organic growth supplemented by a near full quarter contribution from Overlook Industries and half a quarter from AlpHa Measurement Systems.
Management expects the recent acquisitions to add about $60 million in annual revenue.
We anticipate revenue growth will be partially offset by ongoing growth investments to meet burgeoning semiconductor demand, including in the U.S.
Leading industry forecasters project continued semiconductor spending growth through 2028, and we remain bullish on the effect of wafer fabrication, including advanced node production, onshoring to the U.S. on NPO through the end of the decade.
We anticipate continued weak commercial vehicle end markets will be offset by growth in aerospace, including commercial space, food and biopharma.
We model net leverage rising to 2.0x at year end 2026 with $280 million of 4Q:25 acquisitions funded by the revolver. We forecast debt reduction through 2026-2027 but expect M&A remains the primary use of cash.
Our $257 price target is based on an unchanged 27x our average 2026-2027 EPS forecast of $9.53. Our moderate risk rating is supported by near 100% cash conversion and NPO's solid balance sheet.
05 Feb 2026
Project Strong Year-Over-Year Revenue And Margin Growth In 4Q:25 Driven By Semiconductor Equipment Spending Recovery And Recent Sealing Acquisitions; Maintain $257 Price Target
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Project Strong Year-Over-Year Revenue And Margin Growth In 4Q:25 Driven By Semiconductor Equipment Spending Recovery And Recent Sealing Acquisitions; Maintain $257 Price Target
We model almost 10% year-over-year revenue growth to $283.5 million in 4Q:25 with EPS improvement to $1.94 from the year-earlier $1.57.
We anticipate Advanced Surface Technologies (AST) sales expanded 10.0% year over year in 4Q:25, largely in line with improving wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending, with Sealing up 9.5% on low- to mid-single-digit organic growth supplemented by a near full quarter contribution from Overlook Industries and half a quarter from AlpHa Measurement Systems.
Management expects the recent acquisitions to add about $60 million in annual revenue.
We anticipate revenue growth will be partially offset by ongoing growth investments to meet burgeoning semiconductor demand, including in the U.S.
Leading industry forecasters project continued semiconductor spending growth through 2028, and we remain bullish on the effect of wafer fabrication, including advanced node production, onshoring to the U.S. on NPO through the end of the decade.
We anticipate continued weak commercial vehicle end markets will be offset by growth in aerospace, including commercial space, food and biopharma.
We model net leverage rising to 2.0x at year end 2026 with $280 million of 4Q:25 acquisitions funded by the revolver. We forecast debt reduction through 2026-2027 but expect M&A remains the primary use of cash.
Our $257 price target is based on an unchanged 27x our average 2026-2027 EPS forecast of $9.53. Our moderate risk rating is supported by near 100% cash conversion and NPO's solid balance sheet.