We anticipate double-digit annual EPS growth in 2H:25 and 2026, driven by the recovering semiconductor capital equipment market, better Sealing mix and margins (supported by growth in space and nuclear spending) and ongoing efficiency improvement efforts.
We also expect the onshoring of U.S. chip fab capacity to increasingly contribute to earnings growth in 2026 and beyond, which should benefit NPO's strong U.S. presence, including in Idaho, Milipitas, CA, and a new facility in Arizona.
We are further encouraged by the strengthening chip market following TSMC's (NYSE: TSM, NC) announcement earlier this week that its August sales grew almost 34% year over year and 4% sequentially (its second highest sales month ever), likely supported by the ongoing AI boom.
Leading forecasters are largely projecting semiconductor capital equipment spending growth accelerates in 2026 in a broader recovery.
On the Sealing side, while commercial truck orders remain soft, NPO is benefiting from strong growth in space, which we expect generates higher margins, and continued demand in food and pharma.
According to a July report by Space Foundation, the global space economy is projected to grow from more than $600 billion last year to more than $1 trillion by 2032.
The improving balance sheet and strong cash conversion position NPO for additional accretive acquisitions, similar to the 2024 high margin AMI deal.
We model FCF per share of $7.21 in 2025 (as tighter working capital management offsets higher capex, supporting certain growth efforts) and $8.56 in 2026.
Our $243 price target is based on 27x our 2026 EPS estimate of $9.00. Our moderate risk rating is supported by net leverage of only around 1.4x and strong cash generation.
22 Dec 2025
Expect Strong Secular Growth Trends To Drive EPS Expansion In 2H:25 And 2026, Further Supported By Ongoing Efficiency Efforts; Maintain $243 Price Target
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Expect Strong Secular Growth Trends To Drive EPS Expansion In 2H:25 And 2026, Further Supported By Ongoing Efficiency Efforts; Maintain $243 Price Target
EnPro Industries (NPO:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
22 Dec 2025 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani | Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We anticipate double-digit annual EPS growth in 2H:25 and 2026, driven by the recovering semiconductor capital equipment market, better Sealing mix and margins (supported by growth in space and nuclear spending) and ongoing efficiency improvement efforts.
We also expect the onshoring of U.S. chip fab capacity to increasingly contribute to earnings growth in 2026 and beyond, which should benefit NPO's strong U.S. presence, including in Idaho, Milipitas, CA, and a new facility in Arizona.
We are further encouraged by the strengthening chip market following TSMC's (NYSE: TSM, NC) announcement earlier this week that its August sales grew almost 34% year over year and 4% sequentially (its second highest sales month ever), likely supported by the ongoing AI boom.
Leading forecasters are largely projecting semiconductor capital equipment spending growth accelerates in 2026 in a broader recovery.
On the Sealing side, while commercial truck orders remain soft, NPO is benefiting from strong growth in space, which we expect generates higher margins, and continued demand in food and pharma.
According to a July report by Space Foundation, the global space economy is projected to grow from more than $600 billion last year to more than $1 trillion by 2032.
The improving balance sheet and strong cash conversion position NPO for additional accretive acquisitions, similar to the 2024 high margin AMI deal.
We model FCF per share of $7.21 in 2025 (as tighter working capital management offsets higher capex, supporting certain growth efforts) and $8.56 in 2026.
Our $243 price target is based on 27x our 2026 EPS estimate of $9.00. Our moderate risk rating is supported by net leverage of only around 1.4x and strong cash generation.