Metallus reported 4Q:25 adjusted loss per share of $0.18, lower than the consensus of EPS of $0.04 and our $0.05 EPS estimate, largely due to worse than expected price/mix benefits.
Management suggested 1Q:26 results will be better than the just completed quarter, citing lower maintenance cost, seasonality, mix and better operating leverage.
Still, we take a more cautious view of the company's profit profile until we have better clarity. As a result, we lower our 2026 EPS estimate to $0.83 (from $1.17) and our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.47 (from $1.63).
Management continues to highlight Aerospace & Defense (A&D) opportunities. The company says it thinks it can achieve at least $250 million in annualized revenue from this higher margin market by mid-2026 compared to $161.4 million in 2025.
Metallus also retired its remaining convertible preferred and is now debt free. At the end of 4Q:25, the company had net cash of $156.7 million ($3.76 per share).
The reduction in our 2027 estimates takes our price target to $18 (from $20), which is based on a constant 12x our lowered 2027 EPS estimate of $1.47 (previously $1.63).
Our moderate risk rating recognizes the cyclicality in the company's end markets and the notable customer concentration, offset by diversification efforts, a clean balance sheet and cost-saving initiatives.
24 Feb 2026
MTUS 4Q:25 Result Below Expectations; Reduce Estimates And Price Target To $18 (From $20); Look For Aerospace & Defense Business And Operational Gain To Drive Growth Through 2027
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MTUS 4Q:25 Result Below Expectations; Reduce Estimates And Price Target To $18 (From $20); Look For Aerospace & Defense Business And Operational Gain To Drive Growth Through 2027
Metallus reported 4Q:25 adjusted loss per share of $0.18, lower than the consensus of EPS of $0.04 and our $0.05 EPS estimate, largely due to worse than expected price/mix benefits.
Management suggested 1Q:26 results will be better than the just completed quarter, citing lower maintenance cost, seasonality, mix and better operating leverage.
Still, we take a more cautious view of the company's profit profile until we have better clarity. As a result, we lower our 2026 EPS estimate to $0.83 (from $1.17) and our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.47 (from $1.63).
Management continues to highlight Aerospace & Defense (A&D) opportunities. The company says it thinks it can achieve at least $250 million in annualized revenue from this higher margin market by mid-2026 compared to $161.4 million in 2025.
Metallus also retired its remaining convertible preferred and is now debt free. At the end of 4Q:25, the company had net cash of $156.7 million ($3.76 per share).
The reduction in our 2027 estimates takes our price target to $18 (from $20), which is based on a constant 12x our lowered 2027 EPS estimate of $1.47 (previously $1.63).
Our moderate risk rating recognizes the cyclicality in the company's end markets and the notable customer concentration, offset by diversification efforts, a clean balance sheet and cost-saving initiatives.