While U.S. rig count continues to slide on WTI price concerns, natural gas production reaches new peaks, supported by increasing LNG export capacity and rising domestic power needs.
We expect AROC remains well positioned to benefit from further multiyear growth in U.S. gas demand even as we anticipate further declines in rig count into 1H:26.
We highlight additional gas infrastructure approved to move gas out of the Permian to the Gulf Coast, including the final investment decision (FID) announced last month for Matterhorn JV's Eiger Express (to be completed in 2028).
And we note incremental drilling growth in gas plays, including the Haynesville, despite continued subdued natural gas prices.
AROC management has previously indicated that 2026 growth capex is anticipated to be at least $250 million with continued strength in the Permian and recovering demand in gas basins.
We model near full utilization next year with further horsepower growth, driving increased cash flow, supporting further dividend hikes.
In July, AROC announced an 11% sequential increase (27% year over year) to its quarterly dividend to $0.21 per share. Even as we forecast additional nearly 10% ($0.02) and 13% ($0.03) quarterly dividend hikes at the end of 2025 and 2026, we model dividend coverage remaining safely at 3x or above.
Net leverage remained within the management's target of 3x-3.5x at the end of 2Q:25, positioning the company for further fleet expansion backed by multiyear agreements and dividend increases, in our view.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.33. Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage within AROC's target range.

16 Sep 2025
Expect AROC Remains Well Positioned To Expand Cash Flow Through 2026 Despite The Ongoing U.S. Rig Count Decline; Maintain $30 Price Target

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Expect AROC Remains Well Positioned To Expand Cash Flow Through 2026 Despite The Ongoing U.S. Rig Count Decline; Maintain $30 Price Target
While U.S. rig count continues to slide on WTI price concerns, natural gas production reaches new peaks, supported by increasing LNG export capacity and rising domestic power needs.
We expect AROC remains well positioned to benefit from further multiyear growth in U.S. gas demand even as we anticipate further declines in rig count into 1H:26.
We highlight additional gas infrastructure approved to move gas out of the Permian to the Gulf Coast, including the final investment decision (FID) announced last month for Matterhorn JV's Eiger Express (to be completed in 2028).
And we note incremental drilling growth in gas plays, including the Haynesville, despite continued subdued natural gas prices.
AROC management has previously indicated that 2026 growth capex is anticipated to be at least $250 million with continued strength in the Permian and recovering demand in gas basins.
We model near full utilization next year with further horsepower growth, driving increased cash flow, supporting further dividend hikes.
In July, AROC announced an 11% sequential increase (27% year over year) to its quarterly dividend to $0.21 per share. Even as we forecast additional nearly 10% ($0.02) and 13% ($0.03) quarterly dividend hikes at the end of 2025 and 2026, we model dividend coverage remaining safely at 3x or above.
Net leverage remained within the management's target of 3x-3.5x at the end of 2Q:25, positioning the company for further fleet expansion backed by multiyear agreements and dividend increases, in our view.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.33. Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage within AROC's target range.