We model nearly 38% year-over-year cash available for dividend (CAD) growth to $128 million ($0.73 per share), driven by ongoing fleet expansion, including the May 2025 acquisition of Natural Gas Compression Systems (NGCS), and margin improvement.
Despite weaker U.S. drilling activity, demand for new compression has remained healthy, with management anticipating 2026 growth capex of at least $250 million based on the current order book.
Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast LNG export capacity growing by five billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025-2026, with exports increasing almost 24% this year and 11% next year, supporting increasing natural gas production and prices.
We model additional annual double-digit dividend increases through 2027, supported by growing cash flow, with the dividend coverage ratio remaining safely above 3x.
AROC benefits from the multiyear high grading of its fleet toward newer, higher horsepower units, supporting near full utilization through 2027, by our model.
Even as AROC has increased its dividend 40% since the beginning of 2023 and funded fleet expansion (including acquisitions), net leverage remained within management's target of 3.0x-3.5x at the of 2Q:25, positioning the company for further fleet expansion backed by multi-year agreements.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.33. Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage within AROC's target range.

09 Oct 2025
Project Year-Over-Year Cash Flow Growth In 3Q:25, Driven By Further Fleet Expansion And Near Full Utilization Supported By A Strong Order Book; Maintain $30 Price Target

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Project Year-Over-Year Cash Flow Growth In 3Q:25, Driven By Further Fleet Expansion And Near Full Utilization Supported By A Strong Order Book; Maintain $30 Price Target
We model nearly 38% year-over-year cash available for dividend (CAD) growth to $128 million ($0.73 per share), driven by ongoing fleet expansion, including the May 2025 acquisition of Natural Gas Compression Systems (NGCS), and margin improvement.
Despite weaker U.S. drilling activity, demand for new compression has remained healthy, with management anticipating 2026 growth capex of at least $250 million based on the current order book.
Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast LNG export capacity growing by five billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025-2026, with exports increasing almost 24% this year and 11% next year, supporting increasing natural gas production and prices.
We model additional annual double-digit dividend increases through 2027, supported by growing cash flow, with the dividend coverage ratio remaining safely above 3x.
AROC benefits from the multiyear high grading of its fleet toward newer, higher horsepower units, supporting near full utilization through 2027, by our model.
Even as AROC has increased its dividend 40% since the beginning of 2023 and funded fleet expansion (including acquisitions), net leverage remained within management's target of 3.0x-3.5x at the of 2Q:25, positioning the company for further fleet expansion backed by multi-year agreements.
Our $30 price target is based on 9x our 2026 CAD per share estimate of $3.33. Our moderate risk rating is supported by a dividend coverage ratio above 3x and leverage within AROC's target range.