We maintain our 1Q:F26 sales estimate of $271.8 million (consensus of $281 million), representing 6.2% year-over-year growth, driven by an expected 12.4% increase in the Water Treatment segment. For the full year, we continue to project revenue of $1.05 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.08 billion.
We expect 5% growth in gross profit and a 25% gross margin in the quarter, supporting our unchanged EPS estimate of $1.37 (consensus of $1.33). For the full year, we continue to model EPS of $4.35 versus the consensus estimate of $4.41.
Following the WaterSurplus acquisition in April, the company projected a pro forma leverage ratio of 1.7x entering 1Q:F26. We believe the company's current debt position provides ample capacity for additional tuck-in acquisitions, as demonstrated by the PhillTech transaction announced earlier this month.
Looking to F2027, we expect Hawkins to benefit from Water Treatment's increasing contribution to total revenue (45.8% as of F2025) and its higher margin profile. We maintain our F2027 sales forecast of $1.11 billion (consensus of $1.13 billion) and EPS estimate of $4.65, versus the consensus estimate of $4.91.
We reiterate our $154 price target, based on 33x our F2027 EPS estimate of $4.65. Shares have materially outperformed our expectations in recent weeks, and while we view the strength as warranted, we are not revising our valuation framework or price target ahead of next week's earnings release given the lack of formal guidance. Our Moderate risk rating reflects Hawkins' essential product portfolio, consistent earnings growth, strong balance sheet, and longstanding track record of dividend payments.
10 Aug 2025
Maintaining Estimates Ahead of 1Q:F26 Results; Share Strength Underscores Market Recognition of Strategic Shift Toward Higher-Margin, Recurring Revenue Model; Maintain $154 Price Target
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Maintaining Estimates Ahead of 1Q:F26 Results; Share Strength Underscores Market Recognition of Strategic Shift Toward Higher-Margin, Recurring Revenue Model; Maintain $154 Price Target
We maintain our 1Q:F26 sales estimate of $271.8 million (consensus of $281 million), representing 6.2% year-over-year growth, driven by an expected 12.4% increase in the Water Treatment segment. For the full year, we continue to project revenue of $1.05 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.08 billion.
We expect 5% growth in gross profit and a 25% gross margin in the quarter, supporting our unchanged EPS estimate of $1.37 (consensus of $1.33). For the full year, we continue to model EPS of $4.35 versus the consensus estimate of $4.41.
Following the WaterSurplus acquisition in April, the company projected a pro forma leverage ratio of 1.7x entering 1Q:F26. We believe the company's current debt position provides ample capacity for additional tuck-in acquisitions, as demonstrated by the PhillTech transaction announced earlier this month.
Looking to F2027, we expect Hawkins to benefit from Water Treatment's increasing contribution to total revenue (45.8% as of F2025) and its higher margin profile. We maintain our F2027 sales forecast of $1.11 billion (consensus of $1.13 billion) and EPS estimate of $4.65, versus the consensus estimate of $4.91.
We reiterate our $154 price target, based on 33x our F2027 EPS estimate of $4.65. Shares have materially outperformed our expectations in recent weeks, and while we view the strength as warranted, we are not revising our valuation framework or price target ahead of next week's earnings release given the lack of formal guidance. Our Moderate risk rating reflects Hawkins' essential product portfolio, consistent earnings growth, strong balance sheet, and longstanding track record of dividend payments.