Reported 4Q:25 adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share of $0.09 missed our estimate by $0.07 due to a revenue shortfall from reduced client activity.
Revenue of $770 million represented a 3.8% decline year over year and missed our estimate by $33 million.
While no formal guidance was provided, newly announced CEO Harsha Agadi announced key areas of prioritization for Conduent, which include driving growth and plans to host an Analyst Day event.
We reduce our estimates to an adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share estimate of $0.45 (from breakeven) in 2026 and breakeven EPS (from EPS of $0.16) in 2027.
We now estimate (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) a cash outflow of $0.11 per share in 2026, followed by free cash flow of $0.46 in 2027. Our 2027 estimate implies a FCF yield of 34.2%.
We view the valuation of Conduent as best connected to book value per share.
Our updated $6 price target is now based on the year-end 2027 book value of $5.50 per share. Our previous $7 price target was based on our prior year-end 2027 book value per share estimate of $6.87. We think the solid customer base and balance sheet improvements support our valuation and moderate risk rating.
13 Feb 2026
4Q:25 Loss Per Share Misses Our Forecast Due To Lower Revenue; New CEO Announces Initial Key Priorities; Updated Estimates Reflect Anticipated Strategic Shift; Trim Target To $6 (From $7)
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4Q:25 Loss Per Share Misses Our Forecast Due To Lower Revenue; New CEO Announces Initial Key Priorities; Updated Estimates Reflect Anticipated Strategic Shift; Trim Target To $6 (From $7)
Reported 4Q:25 adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share of $0.09 missed our estimate by $0.07 due to a revenue shortfall from reduced client activity.
Revenue of $770 million represented a 3.8% decline year over year and missed our estimate by $33 million.
While no formal guidance was provided, newly announced CEO Harsha Agadi announced key areas of prioritization for Conduent, which include driving growth and plans to host an Analyst Day event.
We reduce our estimates to an adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share estimate of $0.45 (from breakeven) in 2026 and breakeven EPS (from EPS of $0.16) in 2027.
We now estimate (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) a cash outflow of $0.11 per share in 2026, followed by free cash flow of $0.46 in 2027. Our 2027 estimate implies a FCF yield of 34.2%.
We view the valuation of Conduent as best connected to book value per share.
Our updated $6 price target is now based on the year-end 2027 book value of $5.50 per share. Our previous $7 price target was based on our prior year-end 2027 book value per share estimate of $6.87. We think the solid customer base and balance sheet improvements support our valuation and moderate risk rating.