The reported 3Q:25 loss per share missed our estimate by $0.01, primarily due to a revenue shortfall.
Revenue of $767 million was a 5.0% decline year over year and fell short of our $790 million estimate.
Management updated its 2025 guidance, including adjusted revenue of $3.05-$3.10 billion (from $3.10-$3.20 billion) and adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.0%-5.5% (unchanged).
We now forecast an adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share of $0.40 (from $0.29) in 2025, maintain our breakeven EPS estimate in 2026 and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.16.
We estimate (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) a cash outflow of $0.21 per share in 2025, followed by free cash flow of $0.21 (from $0.22) in 2026 and introduce our FCF estimate of $0.33 in 2027. Our 2026 and 2027 estimates imply FCF yields of 12.0% and 18.4%.
The valuation of Conduent is best tied to book value per share, in our view.
Our $7 price target is based on the year-end 2027 book value per share of $6.87. Our price target was previously based on our prior 2026 book value per share of $6.76 to derive the same $7 target. The solid customer base and balance sheet improvements support the valuation and our moderate risk rating, in our view.
10 Nov 2025
Reported 3Q:25 Loss Per Share Misses Our Estimate By $0.01 Due To Revenue Shortfall; We Trim Our 2025 Forecast To Reflect Delayed Client Activity; Free Cash Flow Supports Our $7 Price Target
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Reported 3Q:25 Loss Per Share Misses Our Estimate By $0.01 Due To Revenue Shortfall; We Trim Our 2025 Forecast To Reflect Delayed Client Activity; Free Cash Flow Supports Our $7 Price Target
The reported 3Q:25 loss per share missed our estimate by $0.01, primarily due to a revenue shortfall.
Revenue of $767 million was a 5.0% decline year over year and fell short of our $790 million estimate.
Management updated its 2025 guidance, including adjusted revenue of $3.05-$3.10 billion (from $3.10-$3.20 billion) and adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.0%-5.5% (unchanged).
We now forecast an adjusted (for divestitures and restructuring) loss per share of $0.40 (from $0.29) in 2025, maintain our breakeven EPS estimate in 2026 and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.16.
We estimate (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) a cash outflow of $0.21 per share in 2025, followed by free cash flow of $0.21 (from $0.22) in 2026 and introduce our FCF estimate of $0.33 in 2027. Our 2026 and 2027 estimates imply FCF yields of 12.0% and 18.4%.
The valuation of Conduent is best tied to book value per share, in our view.
Our $7 price target is based on the year-end 2027 book value per share of $6.87. Our price target was previously based on our prior 2026 book value per share of $6.76 to derive the same $7 target. The solid customer base and balance sheet improvements support the valuation and our moderate risk rating, in our view.