Revenue expanded more than 4% year over year in 3Q:25 to $466 million, exceeding our forecast by 2%, on the strength of the Agriculture (Ag) aftermarket and Brazil.
3Q:25 EPS of $0.04 improved from the year-earlier loss per share of $0.19 and compared to our estimate for a $0.03 loss per share.
Ag revenue increased almost 8%, more than 5% ahead of our projection, even as OEM production remains soft amid weak crop prices and trade uncertainty.
Titan has successfully managed evolving tariff policies, in our view, with gross margin widening by 190 basis points year over year to 15.2%, modestly higher than our estimate.
Aftermarket growth underpins Titan's strong, longstanding dealer network and customer preferred tires and wheels, in our view.
We also expect growing aftermarket demand signals an aging tractor fleet. To us, pent up demand will drive a forceful recovery when crop prices improve.
However, we trim our 4Q:25 and 2026 estimates to reflect soft near-term OEM outlooks and farmer sentiment, though lower interest rates and continued aftermarket demand should drive modest improvement next year, by our model.
We now model a stronger recovery in 2027. Certain catalysts could trigger a faster rebound, in our view, including a China-U.S. trade deal.
Strong cash flow drove net leverage back under 4x at the end of 3Q:25 with net debt declining $28 million sequentially.
We model leverage under 2x by the end of 2027, supported by gradual cash flow improvement and rising profitability.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our 2027 free cash flow per share estimate of $0.84 (previously $0.80). Our moderate risk rating is supported by strong customer relationships, broad name recognition and expectations for growing cash flow and declining leverage as Titan's end markets continue to recover.
07 Nov 2025
Solid 3Q:25 Beat On The Stronger Aftermarket And Brazil; Macro Remains Temporarily Challenging, In Our View, But Anticipate Robust Recovery By 2027; Maintain $10 Price Target
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Solid 3Q:25 Beat On The Stronger Aftermarket And Brazil; Macro Remains Temporarily Challenging, In Our View, But Anticipate Robust Recovery By 2027; Maintain $10 Price Target
Titan International (TWI:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
07 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
Revenue expanded more than 4% year over year in 3Q:25 to $466 million, exceeding our forecast by 2%, on the strength of the Agriculture (Ag) aftermarket and Brazil.
3Q:25 EPS of $0.04 improved from the year-earlier loss per share of $0.19 and compared to our estimate for a $0.03 loss per share.
Ag revenue increased almost 8%, more than 5% ahead of our projection, even as OEM production remains soft amid weak crop prices and trade uncertainty.
Titan has successfully managed evolving tariff policies, in our view, with gross margin widening by 190 basis points year over year to 15.2%, modestly higher than our estimate.
Aftermarket growth underpins Titan's strong, longstanding dealer network and customer preferred tires and wheels, in our view.
We also expect growing aftermarket demand signals an aging tractor fleet. To us, pent up demand will drive a forceful recovery when crop prices improve.
However, we trim our 4Q:25 and 2026 estimates to reflect soft near-term OEM outlooks and farmer sentiment, though lower interest rates and continued aftermarket demand should drive modest improvement next year, by our model.
We now model a stronger recovery in 2027. Certain catalysts could trigger a faster rebound, in our view, including a China-U.S. trade deal.
Strong cash flow drove net leverage back under 4x at the end of 3Q:25 with net debt declining $28 million sequentially.
We model leverage under 2x by the end of 2027, supported by gradual cash flow improvement and rising profitability.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our 2027 free cash flow per share estimate of $0.84 (previously $0.80). Our moderate risk rating is supported by strong customer relationships, broad name recognition and expectations for growing cash flow and declining leverage as Titan's end markets continue to recover.