The post 2Q:25 earnings release pullback in TWI shares place shares back below book value, providing an attractive entry point, in our view.
Over the last 10 years, the stock has only traded below book value for multiple quarters three times (see Exhibit 1 on page 2) and has averaged a price/book above 1.5x, according to FactSet data.
While recent economic data and crop prices do not signal a quick recovery in the agriculture market, we still expect declining net leverage in 2H:25 and recovering consumer segment (after temporary 2Q:25 weakness) to serve as modest catalysts for the stock.
The August Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reached its lowest level in almost a year, despite the USDA forecast for net farm income to grow more than 40% this year, coinciding with weaker corn and soybean prices (although soybean prices have rallied over the last month).
We also note the multiyear improvement in TWI margins, benefiting from ongoing production efficiency efforts and the 2024 acquisition of Carlstar.
We model net leverage declining below 3.5x by year end, compared to above 6x the last time the stock traded under book for multiple quarters (2019-2020).
Similarly, we model a gross margin above 14% this year, compared to less than 10% in the four quarters through 1Q:2020.
We model modest free cash flow ($0.08 per share) in 2025 as working capital is reduced in the second half.
We expect further benefits from the Carlstar acquisition in 2026, supported by the recently expanded Goodyear (NASDAQ: GT, NC) licensing agreement, which extends to lawn and garden equipment tires.
11 Sep 2025
Trading Near Tangible Book Value Provides Attractive Entry Point For TWI, In Our View; Maintain $10 Price Target; Expect Declining Leverage In 2H:25
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Trading Near Tangible Book Value Provides Attractive Entry Point For TWI, In Our View; Maintain $10 Price Target; Expect Declining Leverage In 2H:25
The post 2Q:25 earnings release pullback in TWI shares place shares back below book value, providing an attractive entry point, in our view.
Over the last 10 years, the stock has only traded below book value for multiple quarters three times (see Exhibit 1 on page 2) and has averaged a price/book above 1.5x, according to FactSet data.
While recent economic data and crop prices do not signal a quick recovery in the agriculture market, we still expect declining net leverage in 2H:25 and recovering consumer segment (after temporary 2Q:25 weakness) to serve as modest catalysts for the stock.
The August Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reached its lowest level in almost a year, despite the USDA forecast for net farm income to grow more than 40% this year, coinciding with weaker corn and soybean prices (although soybean prices have rallied over the last month).
We also note the multiyear improvement in TWI margins, benefiting from ongoing production efficiency efforts and the 2024 acquisition of Carlstar.
We model net leverage declining below 3.5x by year end, compared to above 6x the last time the stock traded under book for multiple quarters (2019-2020).
Similarly, we model a gross margin above 14% this year, compared to less than 10% in the four quarters through 1Q:2020.
We model modest free cash flow ($0.08 per share) in 2025 as working capital is reduced in the second half.
We expect further benefits from the Carlstar acquisition in 2026, supported by the recently expanded Goodyear (NASDAQ: GT, NC) licensing agreement, which extends to lawn and garden equipment tires.