We expect 2026 to be the first full year reflecting the benefits of Mativ's strategic realignment, including stronger commercial execution, improved cost discipline, and clearer product and portfolio focus across both segments.
For 2026, we model sales of $2.05 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.00, and free cash flow (FCF) of $100 million, supported by continued momentum in Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (SAS) and further stabilization in Filtration & Advanced Materials (FAM).
The company's strategic review continues and remains centered on driving enterprise-wide efficiency, including SKU rationalization, site optimization, and refined R&D prioritization. We believe these actions position the company to demonstrate its underlying earnings power in 2026.
We expect normal seasonal patterns to influence the cadence of results, with softer 4Q and 1Q activity driven by year-end customer inventory management, reduced promotional activity, and fixed cost absorption. These dynamics occur every year and should not be interpreted as a reversal of progress achieved in 2025.
We anticipate that Mativ will address its upcoming maturities with a refinancing in early 2026. Approximately $525 million becomes current in May 2026, and with an additional $116.5 million becoming current in 2027, we believe the company will likely refinance the full $642 million stack, supported by improved free cash flow generation, lower net leverage, and a more favorable interest rate environment.
The company continues to generate strong free cash flow and ended 3Q:25 with net debt of $932 million, a leverage ratio of 4.2x, and liquidity of $517 million.
We maintain our $21 price target on MATV shares, which remains based on a 17x multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.25. New leadership, combined with the company's portfolio transformation and focus on the higher-growth platforms of its business, support our moderate risk rating.
11 Dec 2025
2026 Preview: Cost Actions, Portfolio Focus, And Segment Stabilization Position MATV For Better Performance In First Full Year Under New Leadership; Maintain $21 Price Target
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2026 Preview: Cost Actions, Portfolio Focus, And Segment Stabilization Position MATV For Better Performance In First Full Year Under New Leadership; Maintain $21 Price Target
Schweitzer-Mauduit International (SWM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
11 Dec 2025 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
We expect 2026 to be the first full year reflecting the benefits of Mativ's strategic realignment, including stronger commercial execution, improved cost discipline, and clearer product and portfolio focus across both segments.
For 2026, we model sales of $2.05 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.00, and free cash flow (FCF) of $100 million, supported by continued momentum in Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (SAS) and further stabilization in Filtration & Advanced Materials (FAM).
The company's strategic review continues and remains centered on driving enterprise-wide efficiency, including SKU rationalization, site optimization, and refined R&D prioritization. We believe these actions position the company to demonstrate its underlying earnings power in 2026.
We expect normal seasonal patterns to influence the cadence of results, with softer 4Q and 1Q activity driven by year-end customer inventory management, reduced promotional activity, and fixed cost absorption. These dynamics occur every year and should not be interpreted as a reversal of progress achieved in 2025.
We anticipate that Mativ will address its upcoming maturities with a refinancing in early 2026. Approximately $525 million becomes current in May 2026, and with an additional $116.5 million becoming current in 2027, we believe the company will likely refinance the full $642 million stack, supported by improved free cash flow generation, lower net leverage, and a more favorable interest rate environment.
The company continues to generate strong free cash flow and ended 3Q:25 with net debt of $932 million, a leverage ratio of 4.2x, and liquidity of $517 million.
We maintain our $21 price target on MATV shares, which remains based on a 17x multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.25. New leadership, combined with the company's portfolio transformation and focus on the higher-growth platforms of its business, support our moderate risk rating.